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CFB Week 4 Big Game Picks

#10 Utah Utes (3-0) (-4) @ USC Trojans (2-1) (+4)

  • Friday September 20th, 8:00 PM CST on FS1
  • Utah was one of the favorites coming out of the Pac 12 to make a playoff run and they need this game if they’re going to.
  • Their defense is what they hang their hat on and so far they’ve given up 12 to BYU, 17 to Northern Illinois, and shutout Idaho State. This defense gets a whole new test against USC and their air raid offense.
  • Utah’s offense has been good as well putting up 30 or more in each game with QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zack Moss back in the mix. Huntley hasn’t had to be great so far but he’s been solid. He may need to make some more plays to get past USC.
  • You would think this would be a hard environment to play in on Friday but you never know with USC these days.
  • USC has been good on offense with Kedon Slovis and the WRs they have. Utah’s strength is their DL so expect Utah to stifle the run and make Slovis beat them, which I think he can do.
  • Last week BYU forced three Slovis INTs. Utah has a better defense than BYU.
  • For USC on defense, they need to stop Zack Moss first and foremost. Moss has 373 yards and 4 TDs on the season so far.
  • I like Utah in this game and to cover. Their defense is just too good and Huntley is improving and getting his legs back under him each game.

#11 Michigan Wolverines (2-0) (+3.5) @ #13 Wisconsin Badgers (2-0) (-3.5)

  • Saturday September 21st, 11:00 AM CST on FOX
  • Both teams are coming off bye weeks but Michigan needed it way more than Wisconsin did.
  • To start with Wisconsin, they are outscoring their opponents 110-0 but they’ve beaten South Florida who lost to Georgia Tech who just lost to The Citadel, and Central Michigan at home. So as good as Wisconsin has been early on it’s hard to tell how good they actually are which is why they are ranked below Michigan right now.
  • Wisconsin’s defense does look much better than the down year they had in 2018 however.
  • Wisconsin obviously wants to run the ball with Johnathan Taylor, play good defense, and limit the offensive possessions for the other team.
  • The key to beat Wisconsin this year is to make them throw because who knows how much Jack Coan has improved from last year.
  • Michigan has struggled on offense and barley escaped with a win against Army in Week 2.
  • Their new offense was supposed to be explosive but they’ve made a ton of self made mistakes. In the first two games Michigan has committed 10 penalties on offenses, fumbled the ball 7 times, and dropped the ball 10 times.
  • On top of that, Shea Patterson has lost a fumble on each of Michigan’s opening drives. Patterson has also missed a good number of passes to wide open receivers.
  • Michigan might get their play maker back in WR Donovan Peoples-Jones.
  • Regardless of how bad Michigan’s offense has been, this will be the biggest test for Wisconsin’s defense.
  • Michigan on defense it is simple: limit Johnathan Taylor. If Michigan can keep Taylor around 100 yards that will be a big win for them.
  • If Michigan lost to Army I would have just moved on to the Ohio State game. Nothing matters but Ohio State. However, Michigan eked out a win against Army, it woke them up, and I’ve never been more confident.
  • I like Michigan to win this game outright, 28-20.

#8 Auburn Tigers (3-0) (+4) @ #17 Texas A&M (2-1) (-4)

  • Saturday September 21st, 2:30 PM CST on CBS
  • Auburn got lucky to beat Oregon in Week 1 and then rolled through Tulane and Kent St. So of course they are Auburn so they’re ranked #8.
  • Freshman Bo Nix looked good against poor competition, as he should, but really struggled against Oregon but made enough plays I guess. The last TD throw was actually not a good toss but if it was accurate, it was probably broken up. Just a really good play the WR.
  • A&M meanwhile lost to Clemson for this lone loss but has dominated in two other wins. They didn’t look good against Clemson especially Kellen Mond, but nobody is going to look good against Clemson until we see the Tigers in the playoff.
  • The biggest thing in this game for me: I trust and like Kellen Mond way more than Bo Nix. Nix hasn’t shown me enough that I trust him to come into College Station and make enough plays to win here.
  • Auburn can win this game because they do have a ton of talent. If they win that means Bo Nix made a ton of plays with his legs. Although Nix can make all the throws, at this point in his career if he’s going pull off an upset I see him doing it with this legs first, and arm second.
  • The other way Auburn wins this game is if their dominate DL makes A&M one dimensional, and so far A&M’s run game hasn’t been something to write home about.
  • I like Kellen Mond to get on track and have a big game here. He hasn’t looked as good as he did last year but I trust Jimbo to get him back on track.
  • 4 points is pretty big here for me and each game with these two teams has been close since A&M has been in the SEC. I wouldn’t bet this game, but I’ll say Auburn covers but loses by 3.

Oklahoma St. Cowboys (3-0) (+5) @ #12 Texas Longhorns (2-1) (-5)

  • Saturday September 21st, 6:30 PM CST on ABC
  • This should be a very fun, high scoring game to watch. The over under is set at 72.5.
  • Oklahoma St.’s offense has looked great but their defense has not. They gave up 36 to Oregon St. and 21 to Tulsa.
  • Texas’ defense looks like it has improved a little bit from last year. Take away their game against a very good LSU and I see a little better play.
  • Having said that, there’s no way both teams here don’t score 24+ points in this game.
  • Oklahoma St. won this game 38-35 last year.
  • If Texas loses this game, then its back to the “Texas is back” jokes for everybody in America.
  • Texas can handle a loss to LSU at still make the CFP, but if they lose here their season is over as far as the playoff goes.
  • Can we just mention how much of a Miserable Bitch Tom Herman is. Anytime somebody does the horns down he pouts like a little child. I feel like if someone of OKST game him a thumbs down he’d have a temper tantrum.
  • There’s nothing more I want to see in this game than Oklahoma St. come away with a win.
  • 5 points seems like the right number but its very tough because I see this as a back and forth high scoring game. We’re getting real Big 12 football back this year.
  • I like Texas to win, and I’ll say they cover in an exciting game.

#7 Notre Dame (2-0) (+13.5) @ #3 Georgia Bulldogs (3-0) (-13.5)

  • Saturday September 21st, 7:00 PM CST on CBS
  • The biggest game of the day has the biggest spread of all the must watches.
  • Notre Dame is not the same team as last year, they lost their star RB and WR to NFL, and they lost a ton of talent on defense up the middle to the NFL also.
  • It took ND a half to get past Louisville, and then last year against New Mexico St. they crushed them which is what you want to see.
  • Georgia on the other hand hasn’t had a real test either. They did open Week 1 at Vandy but won 30-6 and their other two games were blowouts.
  • Georgia wants to run, run, and run some more with the loaded RB core they seem to always have under Kirby Smart.
  • If Notre Dame wins this game, Ian Book is going to have to have the game of his life. I don’t see Notre Dame running the ball very well against Georgia.
  • Georgia has better athletes all over the field if we’re being honest and they return more guys form last year.
  • Georgia gets this game at home and at night, the place is going to be rocking. I see a close first half but Georgia eventually pulls away in the second half.
  • I got this line at 13.5 and I’ll take Georgia to cover.
Georgia wide receiver Lawrence Cager (15) celebrates with teammates after catching a touchdown pass against Arkansas State. (Photo: Dale Zanine, USA TODAY Sports)
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