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NFL Week 1 Super Contest Picks

The reason I like the Steelers in this spot is because of their pass rushing versus the Patriots OL which is the biggest question on the team.

We are not in any Vegas Super Contests but it is something I would love to do one day. So we are going to treat this like we’re playing in it and pick five games each week against the spread. I will also give a few of my favorite over/unders at the end. So how does the Super Contest work for those that are unaware of what it is. There are a few in Vegas you can choose but the one were going by is you must have you’re picks in by 11:00 AM on Saturday morning, if you want to pick the Thursday Night Game then all your picks must be in before kickoff of that game, and each game you pick right against the spread earns you 1 point, and ties earn you .5 points, while losses earn you nothing. I will be using Vegas Inside VI Consensus for the lines.

San Francisco 49ers (+1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

  • Sunday September 8th 3:25 PM CST on FOX
  • The 49ers are getting Jimmy Garrapolo back after a torn ACL but he hasn’t played much football and his first game back is going to be in the Florida heat and humidity. 
  • I don’t like the 49ers opening up on the East Coast. 
  • I really like this Bucs team with Bruce Arians running the show.  The weakness on this offense is at RB but the receiving targets are loaded with Evans, Godwin, Brate, and Howard. 
  • I think both these teams are pretty similar in their makeup.  They both have QBs you are unproven, questions in the running game, but have good weapons on the outside, and both defenses need to prove they make stops. 
  • I see this as a high scoring games with two of the best play callers in the NFL on the sidelines in Kyle Shanahan and Bruce Arians. 
  • I’ll take the home team in this one and the Bucs to start out 1-0 under Arians. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (+6) @ New England Patriots (-6)

  • Sunday September 8th 7:20 PM CST on NBC
  • The Patriots don’t get the Thursday Night Opening game but they do get the first Sunday Night game of the year. 
  • In the Patriots previous years after winning the Super Bowl and playing a prime-time game they have gone 4-1.  The loss coming in 2017 at home to the Kansas City Chiefs. 
  • The Patriots played the Steelers in 2015 and won this game 28-21. 
  • The reason I like the Steelers in this spot is because of their pass rushing versus the Patriots OL which is the biggest question on the team. 
  • I like the Patriots to win this game, but obviously think the Steelers keep it within 6 points. 
  • Since 2002, the defending Super Bowl champs have only lost this game three times but in wins the Super Bowl champs have only won by 10 or more points four times. 
  • I also like that this is a different Steelers team without the distraction of Antonio Brown of Le’veon Bell. 

Denver Broncos (+1) @ Oakland Raiders (-1)

  • Monday September 9th 9:15 PM CST on ESPN
  • Admittedly  I am a big Broncos guys this year, I love their defense. 
  • The Raiders have gone 1-2 in opening MNF games since 2010 including a 20 point loss to the Rams last year. 
  • Both these teams are going to be very different than they were last year so its risky to even bet on this game. 
  • The Broncos have a whole new coaching staff under Vic Fangio and new QB in Joe Flacco. 
  • The Raiders have added a ton to their team: Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, Trent Brown, Lamarcus Joyner, Richie Incognito, Vontaze Burifcit, and rookies Clelin Ferrell, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow, and Johnathan Abram will all play a ton for the Raiders. 
  • The biggest question mark for the Raiders is Antonio Brown who acted like a child during training camp because he didn’t like his helmet.  He also got frostbite on his feet so who knows where he is at with this Raiders offense. 
  • The Broncos defense should be a top unit this year led by Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. Vic Fangio completely changed the Bears defense in 2018 so I am excited to see what he can do with two ends like Miller and Chubb. 
  • Question for the Broncos is how good can Flacco be? The 2019 Broncos should be built like the Ravens teams that Flacco led to playoffs earlier in his career.  A team that wants to run the ball a ton (with Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsey) and let Flacco throw to some solid targets in Emmanuel Sanders, DeSean Hamilton, Courtland Sutton, and Rookie TE Noah Fant. 
  • The Broncos offensive line should also be better than they were last year. 
  • I’ll take the team I think is going to better in 2019, the Broncos. 

Washington Redskins (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5)

  • Sunday September 8th 12:00 PM CST on FOX
  • The Redskins are starting Donald Penn (36 years old) at LT against and Eagles team that probably has the best DL in the league. 
  • The Redskins have zero play-makers on offense that have proven themselves, and they are starting Case Keenum at QB. 
  • The Redskins defense should be decent but they have to go on the road to play one of the deepest offenses in the league, and a team that has one of the best OLs in the league. 
  • 9.5 is a ton of points, but I see a blood bath here in Philly. 

Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)

  • Sunday September 8th 3:05 PM CST on CBS
  • Bengals have a new head coach, an average QB, they lost their best WR, and their OL has a ton of injuries. Now were sending that offense into the best home field advantage in football and a defense that just added Jadeveon Clowney. 
  • The Bengals defense is meh, and they have to go up against a Seahawks team that is going to pound the ball. The Bengals gave up 137.8 Yards rushing per game in 2018, the Seahawks have a good shot at going over that number. 
  • Just like Eagles/Redskins game, I see a big blowout here in favor of the Seahawks. 

Over/Unders

  • San Francisco 49ers/Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 50
  • Cincinnati Bengals/Seattle Seahawks OVER 43.5
  • Washington Redskins/Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 46
  • Los Angeles Rams/Carolina Panthers UNDER 50.5
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