The PGA kicks off this weekend with the third major of the year back at Pebble Beach for the U.S. Open. Brooks Koepka is looking to go back to back to back at U.S. Open’s while Dustin Johnson is looking to continue his great play at Pebble Beach and look to redeem the mistakes he made in 2010 here.
Whose Teeing Off
Everybody is teeing it up here. Nobody notable is missing because of injury or anything so again we’ll take a look at the notable groupings for the first two days. (all times CST)
Thursday Hole #1 Tee Time / Friday Hole #10 Tee Time
- 10:02 AM / 3:47 PM – Si Woo Kim, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day
- 10:24 AM / 4:09 PM – Cameron Smith, Matthew Wallace, Xander Schauffele
- 12:25 PM / 9:40 AM – Paul Casey, Patrick Cantlay, Lucas Glover
- 12:47 PM / 10:02 AM – Francesco Molinari, (a) Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka
- 12:58 PM / 10:13 AM – Tony Finau, Jimmy Walker, Ian Poulter
- 1:09 PM / 11:24 AM – Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Tiger Woods
Thursday Hole #10 Tee Time / Friday Hole #1 Tee Time
- 9:51 AM / 3:36 PM – Jon Rahm, Marc Leishman, Rory McIlroy
- 10:02 AM / 3:47 PM – Justin Thomas, Kevin Kisner, Bryson DeChambeau
- 10:13 AM / 3:58 PM – Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Graeme McDowell
- 10:24 AM / 4:09 PM – Hideki Matsuyama, Sergio Garcia, Tommy Fleetwood
- 12:25 PM / 9:40 AM – Jim Furyk, Henrik Stenson, Brandt Snedeker
- 12:47 PM / 10:02 AM – Webb Simpson, Adam Scott, Matt Kuchar
Just like some other tournaments this year, we have U.S. Open history to look at and Pebble Beach history to look at. The AT&T Pro Am is played every year at Pebble Beach and most of these guys in the field play there. The difference between these two tournament is the USGA is going into Pebble Beach after the Pro-Am this year, and making it as difficult as possible. Phil Mickelson won the Pro-Am this year at -19 under, I wouldn’t expect the winning score to be close to that this year. But many didn’t think Koepka would shoot -16 under at Erin Hills two years ago, so you never know. First we’ll take a look at U.S. Open recent finishes and good track records, then we’ll take a look at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am winners and those who have played well there. The biggest thing to remember about the Pro-Am before looking at the results, is you have to remember that only two of the four rounds are played at Pebble Beach. Guys can really make hay at Monterey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill which can boost how well their finishes are at Pebble Beach so take those results with a grain of salt.
U.S. Open Results (past 5 years)
- 2018: Brooks Koepka (+1)
- Runner-Up: Tommy Fleetwood (Even)
- 2017: Brooks Koepka (-16)
- Runner-Up: Hideki Matsuyama, Brian Harman (-12)
- 2016: Dustin Johnson (-4)
- Runner-Up: Jim Furyk, Shane Lowry, Scott Piercy (-1)
- 2015: Jordan Spieth (-5)
- Runner-Up: Dustin Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen (-4)
- 2014: Martin Kaymer (-9)
- Runner-Up: Erik Compton, Rickie Fowler (-1)
In general, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka have played very well at U.S. Opens. Dustin Johnson could have won in 2010 and in 2015 but had a few meltdowns along the way. Koepka on the other hand the past few years always plays well in big tournaments, no reason to think he won’t play well again.
- Tommy Fleetwood the past two years has finished 2nd and 4th.
- Xander Schauffele the past two years has finished T6 and T5.
- Justin Rose missed the cut in 2017 but he bounced back with a T6 in 2018.
- Justin Thomas has finished T25 and T9 the past to years.
Pebble Beach Pro Am Results (Past 5 Years)
- 2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
- Runner-Up: Paul Casey (-16)
- 2018: Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
- Runner-Up: Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Chez Reavie (-14)
- 2017: Jordan Spieth (-19)
- Runner-Up: Kelly Kraft (-15)
- 2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17)
- Runner-Up: Phil Mickelson (-16)
- 2015: Brandt Snedeker (-22)
- Runner-Up: Nick Watney (-19)
- Besides Phil’s win this year, he also won at Pebble Beach in 2012, 2007, 2005, and 1998. Phil loves Pebble Beach and finished T4 here last time it was the site of the U.S. Open.
- Dustin Johnson has two wins at the Pro-Am, in 2009 and 2010. He also has multiple second place finishes in 2014 and 2018. He also finished T3 in 2017.
- Tiger hasn’t played here since 2012 where he finished T15, and T4 in the U.S. Open in 2010 here.
- Jason Day has played very well here, finished T4, T2, T5, T11, T4 in his past five starts.
- Paul Casey has played here twice and finished 2nd and T8.
- Brand Snedeker is kind of erratic here. MC and T20 the past two starts but he does have a T4 in 2017 and two wins in 2015 and 2012.
- For a long shot, Jimmy Walker missed the cut in 2019 but finished T8 last year. He won 2014 adn the previous three years before that he finished in the top 10.
- Spieth won in 2017 and finished T7 in 2015, and T4 in 2014. The starts in 2016, 2018, and 2019 all resulted in T20 or worse finishes.
- Justin Rose has played here twice recently, finishing T39 in 2017, and T6 in 2016.
- Adam Scott has missed the cut the past two years.
Pebble Beach Golf Links is located in Monterey Peninsula, CA and was designed in 1919 by Jack Neville and Douglas Grant. It is a 7,040 Par 71 course that features breathtaking views of the Pacific Ocean that FOX is going to beat into your skull. Hopefully not as much as CBS though, if CBS had this tournament the first 10 minutes of the broadcast would be Jim Nantz whispering sweet nothings into our ears with shots of waves crashing on the rocks. This course features 9 holes by the water, but only a few have shots where the water should affect the players, unless they absolutely shank something. Hole 18 is arguable the most famous finishing hole in golf, and the hole on this course where water comes into play the most. The other big factor here is the wind. Obviously being on the ocean, the wind will always play a big factor.
As far as statistics to look at, the key at Pebble Beach is iron play and avoiding those troublesome spots. Some articles I have a read and podcasts I’ve listened to this week suggest some guys might only his drive four or five times. So take out the importance of bombing drives, the key here is being great with your irons which will lead to Greens in Regulation. The greens here are also small which plays into the GIR stat. You’ll also want guys who are good at scrambling and can get hot with the putter.
Let’s take a look at some notable holes that aren’t #7, #8 or #18. For recaps on those holes you can check out my Pebble Beach Pro Am Preview here.
Hole #2: 516 Yard Par 4
A change here from the Pro-Am. In the Pro-Am, this is a par 5 but for the U.S. Open they turned this into a Par 4. This is straightaway hole with bunkers lining the fairway, and completely guarding the green on all sides but the back. To get here in two, guys will need a great shot off the tee in the fairway, for the most part. I expect this is to the be one of the harder holes during the week.
Hole #6: 506 Yard Par 5
Very cool looking Par 5 on the front nine. Hole features the cliffs into the ocean on the right, with bunkers on the left that players will try to avoid. The second (or third) shot is uphill onto the green. But there are more bunkers up on the hill players need to avoid. This is a get-able green in two, but you need a great second iron shot to have the chance.
One & Done: Going with Dustin Johnson this week. He played well at the past few U.S. Opens, he’s very familiar with the course and has played great at the Pro Am’s held here. Plus, he can exorcise some demons from 2010 with a win here.
Betting Winner: Dustin Johnson (+800), Tommy Fleetwood (+3300), Paul Casey ( +5500), Henrik Stenson (+6000), Si Woo Kim (+15000),
Top 10 Betting: Brooks Koepka (+100), Tommy Fleetwood (+300), Xander Schauffele (+250), Jimmy Walker (+1100), Branden Grace (+900), Haotong Li (+1400), Byeong-Hun An (+1400)
- Dustin Johnson
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Jimmy Walker
- Henrik Stenson
- Byeong Hun An
- Paul Casey
One & Done History: Last four tournaments we have two T8’s, a missed cut, and a winner. Probably a little for a run to the top but were going with Dustin Johnson here to keep things hot.
- Waste Management Open: Matt Kuchar – $293,467 (T4)
- Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Shane Lowry – $0 (Missed Cut)
- Genesis Open: Hideki Matsuyama – $177,600 (T9)
- WGC-Mexico: Jon Rahm –$65,000 (T45)
- The Honda Classic: Sergio Garcia – $183,700 (T9)
- Arnold Palmer Invitational: Rickie Fowler – $35,000 (T40)
- The Players: Jason Day –$350,000 (T8)
- The Valspar Championship: Webb Simpson – $0 (Missed Cut)
- WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play: Brooks Koepka – $53,000 (T53)
- Valero Texas Open: Bud Cauley – $0 (Missed Cut)
- The Masters: Paul Casey – $0 (Missed Cut)
- RBC Heritage: Xander Schauffele – $15,559
- Zurich Classic: Patrick Reed –$0 (Missed Cut)
- Wells Fargo Championship: Tony Finau – $17,064 (T60)
- AT&T Byron Nelson: Keith Mitchell – $17,301
- The PGA Championship: Rory McIlroy – $264,395 (T8)
- Charles Schwab Challenge: Kevin Kisner – $0 (Missed Cut)
- The Memorial Tournament: Patrick Cantlay – $1,638,000 (WINNER)
- RBC Canadian Open: Henrik Stenson – $220,400 (T8)
- U.S. Open: Dustin Johnson –