NFL Championship Weekend Sportsbook

I am excited for the culmination of "Gumbo Week."  The real question is: will Marcus Peters throw a punch at Sean Payton?

Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)O/U 57

  • Sunday January 20th, New Orleans, LA (Mercedes-Benz Superdome): 3:05 PM EST on FOX
  • A rematch of a very good and high scoring game in week 9 where the Saints won 45-35.
  • Much like the Patriots and Chiefs the Rams defense played remarkably well against the Cowboys when they had two weeks to prepare and week of rest. They do not have that luxury this week.
  • Even though last week was only McVay’s and Goff’s second playoff game, it felt like it was a must win for those guys or else they were gonna start getting shit on for not being able to win a big game.
  • McVay and his offense is talk of the league, especially with a ll the new coaches and Sean McVay jokes everybody sports talk host likes to make and thinks their being funny but really they sound like idiots and its annoying.
  • McVay’s offense is great, but not because of multiple personnel groups.  The Rams use 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE) 90% of the time.
  • Because they use that 11 personnel so much, this team is really missing Cooper Kupp and I think it took them a few weeks to get used to him being gone.  Him being on the IR is not being talked about enough, IMO he is the most important WR on that team.
  • The Saints defense will also have to stop a rejuvenated Rams rushing attack with the Water-buffalo himself, CJ Anderson, and Todd Gurley.
  • They’ll have to do that without Sheldon Rankings who is one of their best players on the d-line and got injured last week against the Eagles.
  • The Saints have the best defense left in the playoffs.
  • The Rams ran zero 21 personnel all year (two RBs, 1 TE).  Lets see if McVay throws in a wrinkle with C.J. Anderson and Todd Gurley on the field at the same time.
  • The previous game these two played, the Rams ran 100% of their plays out of 11 personnel.  That shows how much they love that grouping. The Rams had Cooper Kupp that game however, I don’t expect them to do that again here.
  • The Saints have luxury of having home field advantage.  If this game is in a neutral location or in L.A., I think this game would be a pick ’em.
  • The Saints on offense also want to establish the run with Ingram and Kamara.  The Rams counter that with Donald and Suh.  If Donald and Suh can play like they did last week, the Rams will win this game.
  • I would like to see the Saints get the ball more to Kamara in different ways. New Orleans ran their 21 personnel the second most during the season, i think they’ll run more of that this week to get Ingram and Kamara on the field at the same time.  That should help Kamara get the ball in different situations.
  • I am excited for the culmination of “Gumbo Week.”  The real question is: will Marcus Peters throw a punch at Sean Payton?

  • The Rams most important defensive player on Sunday? Mark Barron. He allows the Rams to put a lot of DB’s on the field while he plays a glorified LB position.  He’ll be asked to make a lot of tackles in the box when the Saints run the ball. He’ll need to be up to the task.
  • Second most important player: Aquib Talib. Will he be able to slow down Michael Thomas, at all?
  • The home-field advantage is just too much for me, I love that Drew Brees and Sean Payton have been here before. I like the Saints win this game but I’ll put my money down on the Rams to cover the 3.5 here.  I also like this game to be lower scoring than most expect.  Both defenses are playing well, and both teams really want to run the ball.
    • 56% on the Rams & 57% on the Over.


New England Patriots (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (+3)O/U 55.5

  • Sunday January 20th, Kansas City, MO (Arrowhead Stadium): 6:40 PM EST on CBS
  • Let’s start with the Patriots on the road in the playoffs.
    • Bill Belichick is 3-5.
    • Tom Brady is 3-4.
      • He needs one more win to even tie Mark Sanchez for most road playoff wins of all time.  What a joke.
  • Let’s look at those losses for Brady, @ Denver in 2005, @ Indianapolis in 2006, @ Denver in 2013, and @ Denver in 2015.
  • What can we take from those?  3 of those 4 losses were against good defenses out west.  Kansas City doesn’t have a good defense.
  • The Patriots this year have outscored their opponents by 111 points.  110 of those points, have come against the AFC East where they went 5-1.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-2 against Andy Reid, including a Super Bowl win.  Reid’s two wins against Belichick have come while he has been on the Chiefs.  One was the blowout win in Arrowhead in 2014, and the other was the opening weekend win in 2017.
  • Andy Reid’s teams have scored 40 points three times against Belichick.  The Pats under Belichick have only given up 40 points seven total times.
  • Both of these teams had defenses that were criticized during the year, and both played remarkably well last weekend. Part of that is due to the fact they had two weeks to rest up, and the coaches were able to start some sort of game plan during Wild Card weekend.  These defenses won’t have that luxury this weekend.
  • I like there to be a lot of scoring in this game because of that fact, and the weather.
  • Early in the week there was going to be an Arctic Blast!!!!!!! I think Colin Cowhurd jizzed his pants over this fact multiple times and because of cold weather that apparently Kansas City never sees but New England does so the KC fans will be quiet. What a moron.
  • The Chiefs defense coordinator Bob Sutton is not going to make the same mistakes the Chargers did and drop into zone and allow Brady to pick them apart, although Brady will pick them apart regardless.
  • Chiefs defense is going to need Dee Ford and Chris Jones are going to need to play like men and get pressure on Brady unlike Bosa and Ingram did for the Chargers.
  • I would also expect the Patriots to continue to use Gronkowski as a glorified OL and pound the ball with Sony Michel.
  • If the Patriots win the toss and take the ball.  They have another offensive game-plan they are 1000% confident in and want to score right away to make the Chiefs play ahead.  Same exact formula as the Chargers.
  • The Pats on defense on are going to have their hands full with the Chiefs offense.
  • The Pats like to take away the Chiefs best players, and I think that involves them honing in on Tyreek Hill.  However, Sammy Watkins is back, they have Travis Kelce, and that creates a ton of match-up problems for the Patriots.  I don’t think they can stop this Chiefs offense.
  • What Belichick is going to try to do is confuse Mahomes and force him into mistakes, and taking those deep ball chances he likes to throw.  Mahomes threw two picks in the 43-40 loss to the Patriots earlier in the year. One of those was a poor toss up throw in the second half.  Belichick is going to try and get Mahomes into those situations again.
  • So the Pats love to run their 2-1 personnel, meaning two RBs, one TE, and two WRs.  They run out of this 29% of their snaps.
  • The Chiefs defense on the other hand since week 10 allowed 7.7 YPC against 2-1 personnel.  They also allowed a 64% success rate.  Not good.  Expect a lot of White/Devlin, White/Michel, Michel/Devlin combos on the field for the Pats.  Again, Gronk is acting like an extra OL in this offense.  The Chiefs need to make that adjustment in run down scenarios and do their best to not treat Gronk as a TE threat.
  • Having said that, Gronk will now go for 137 yards and 2 TDs.
  • Lets look at the Chiefs personnel groupings.  The Chiefs love 11 personnel, one RB, one TE, and three WRs.
  • Damien Williams runs from 11 personnel 64% of the time, with a success rate of 67% and averages 5.2 YPC. The Patriots since week 11 have been the worst team against 11 personnel.
  • So both teams have big advantages with certain personnel groupings, and with great offensive minds like Andy Reid and Josh McDaniels – I fully expect to see both teams hit those groups right away and see if those groupings do well for them.
  • The Patriots are also a completely different team on the road this year, they are 3-5 and average 12 points less per game and give up almost 7 points more per game. Take that, and the Patriots 3-4 road playoff record with Belichick and Brady and advantage Chiefs.
  • I like the Chiefs to cover in a high scoring game.  3 is a fucking hard number to take a side on, especially this late in the playoffs.  At 3.5, I probably take the Pats to cover in a loss.  But I’ll bank on an odd score here and the Chiefs winning by 4 or 5 points.
    • 54% on Kansas City & 53% on the Under.

1 comment on “NFL Championship Weekend Sportsbook

  1. Pingback: Hangover Monday: Championship Weekend & College Basketball : Moxie Sports

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