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Golf

PGA Tour Season Preview Part II: Betting Odds & Picks

Don't hold me to my picks here.  Picking tournament winners 4+ months out is crap shoot and chances are I'll probably have different picks the week of each tournaments below. 

Welcome to the betting portion of the PGA preview.  Here we’ll look at some odds of the four major tournaments and I’ll make the pick for who I think is gonna  win each tournament. I’ll also make a value pick, which means a guy with good odds that I think has a legit shot at winning this year.

Augusta.PNG
Augusta National

Masters Tournament

Favorites: Tiger Woods (+900), Jordan Spieth (+1000), Dustin Johnson (+1100), Justin Thomas (+1200), Rory McIlRoy (+1200), Brooks Koepka (+1400), Justin Rose (+1400), Rickie Fowler (+1600).

  • Obviously any of these guys can win this tournament.  Throw money down on them if you want, but we like to look at value here. If I had to pick a guy out of this list – Fowler at +1600 and Rose at +1400 seem like the best value.

Middle of the Pack: Bubba Watson (+2500), Phil Mickelson (+4500), Adam Scott (+6000), Hideki Matsuyama (+3300), Tommy Fleetwood (+3300), Xander Schauffele (+5000), Tony Finau (+3300), Louis Oosthuizen (+5000)

  • Finau, Schauffele, and Matsuyama will be hot picks here especially if they are playing good around the Masters.  Watson, Mickelson, and Scott are all guys who have won here but neither have played great a the Masters in the past two years.  I am a Tommy Fleetwood, but the value here for me is on Matsuyama.  I think he can have a big year and will be playing the best out of this group.

Darkhorse: Zach Johnson (+1200), Thomas Pieters (+10000), Gary Woodland (+8000), Kevin Kisner (+15000), Cameron Smith (+8000)

  • Cameron Smith finished T5 at Augusta last year, Woodland is a guy people have expected more from the past few years and he has a few wins to his name. Zach Johnson has played a ton of golf here and won in 2007.  Pieters is another foreign player people are waiting for to splash.  Kisner has played well at majors just not at Augusta. I like taking a gamble on Pieters here along with Smith.

Moxie’s Pick to Win in January:  Rory McIlroy

Value Pick: Thomas Pieters (+10000)

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Bethpage Black

PGA Championship

Favorites: Tiger Woods (+900), Dustin Johnson (+900), Rory McIlroy (+1200), Justin Thomas (+1200), Brook Koepka (+1400), Jordan Speith (+1600), Jason Day (+1800), Rickie Fowler (+2000), Jon Rahm (+2000), Justin Rose (+2000).

  • No surprises here. Were looking at value picks though, Speith as +1600 is a good pick to me for a guy that got a winning pedigree and is looking to bounce back this year. Also Koepka going for back to backs is +1400, he’s already proven he can win back to back majors.  Why not do it again?

Middle of the Pack: Bryson Dechambeau (+2500), Francesco Molinari (+3000), Tommy Fleetwood (+3000), Hideki Matsuyama (+4000), Henrik Stenson (+4500), Adam Scott (+5000), Phil Mickelson (+5000)

  • I love Tommy Fleetwood this year (see below).  Matsuyama is looking for his first major win and is always dangerous.  Stenson and Scott are both “older” foreign players that have played very well in PGA Championships in the past

Darkhorse: Sergio Garcia (+6600), Xander Schauffele (+6600), Jason Dufner (+1600), Daniel Berger (+1200), Louis Oosthuizen (+8000), Webb Simpson (+6600).

  • Dufner has won a PGA Championship before. Berger is another young gun who when he plays well, he can play with anybody.  Webb Simpson won The Players last year, made the Ryder Cup team, and has won a major already.

Moxie’s Pick to Win: Tommy Fleetwood

Value Pick: Henrik Stenson (+4500)

pebble beach
Pebble Beach

U.S. Open

Favorites: Tiger Woods (+900), Dustin Johnson (+1000), Jordan Speith (+1400), Rory McIlroy (+1600), Brooks Koepka (+1400), Justin Thomas (+1600), Justin Rose (+1800), Jason Day (+1800), Rickie Fowler (+2200).

  • Rickie has played pretty well at U.S. Opens with three top 10s and is hungry to win a major in 2019. Koepka is at +1400 looking to 3-peat.  I’m surprised he’s not actually lower but hey, if he can win it again might as well rename the tournament after him.

Middle of the Pack: Jon Rahm (+2500), Tommy Fleetwood (+3300), Bryson Dechambeau (+3300), Henrik Stenson (+3500), Phil Mickelson (+3500), Paul Casey (+4000), Tony Finau (+3300), Adam Scott (+5000), Francesco Molinari (+4000)

  • Lots of the same names here.  Tony Finau is one to look at, another young stud many think will win a few tournaments this year.  He did finish top 10 in three of the four majors last year.

Darkhorse: Xander Schauffele (+6600), Webb Simpson (+6600), Bubba Watson (+6600), Sergio Garcia (+5500), Daniel Berger (+10000), Zach Johnson (+10000), Jimmy Walker (+12000), Martin Kaymer (+17000), Charley Hoffman (+15000), Cameron Smith (+12000)

  • Schauffele is my boy and pick to win this one.  Jimmy Walker, Zach Johnson, Martin Kaymer are all good vets that have good value here.  Berger had is best ever Major finish last year at the U.S. Open.

Moxie’s Pick to Win: Xander Schauffele

Value Pick: Daniel Berger (+10000)

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Royal Portrush

The Open

Favorites: Tigers Woods (+900), Rory McIlroy (+1000), Dustin Johnson (+1400), Jordan Spieth (+1600), Justin Rose (+1600), Rickie Fowler (+1800), Brooks Koepka (+1800)

  • All these guys are the same for every tournament.  Again, I like Spieth because he has won an Open before and his poor performance last year is driving his numbers up.

Middle of the Pack: John Rahm (+2200), Tommy Fleetwood (+2200), Justin Thomas (+2200), Jason Day (+3300), Francesco Molinari (+2500), Henrik Stenson (+3300), Sergio Garcia (+3300), Hideki Matsuyama (+3500), Bryson Dechambeau (+4000)

  • Mickelson and Stenson both have played well at Open’s in the past, Stenson won in 2016 over Mickelson.  Justin Thomas at +2200 is good value because he is one of the best players in the world, can never count him out.

Darkhorse: Adam Scott (+5000), Phil Mickelson (+6600), Xander Schauffele (+7000), Matt Kuchar (+6600), Thomas Pieters (+7000), Martin Kaymer (+15000), Daniel Berger (+20000)

  • Adam Scott is the lowest odds here but he plays fucking great at The Open with 6 top 10’s and 4 top 5’s. He’s always a solid betting pick. Matt Kuchar has also played well at Open’s in the past coming close to winning, and he already has good start to 2019 with a win at the Sony Open. Pieters and Berger are young guys who will be make moves also.

Moxie’s Pick to Win: Tiger Woods

Value Pick: Matt Kuchar (+6600)

 

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