NFL Divisional Round Sportsbook

Hey did you guys know Tom Brady is now 40? Did you know he's older than five head coaches now?  Did you know he's never lost to Phil Rivers? Let me tell you what, amazing stats. I'm gonna tweet those out in case you forgot. 

#6 Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) @ #1 Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) — O/U 57.5

  • Saturday January 12th, Kansas City, MO (Arrowhead Stadium): 4:35 PM EST ON NBC
  • Colts are 8-7-1 ATS while the Chiefs are 9-6-1 ATS. Chiefs are 1-4 in their last five ATS.
  • Colts are 8-8 in O/U while the Chiefs are 10-6. Colts have hit over 57 points in five games this year while the Chiefs have done it eight times.
  • Indy gets the early time slot on Saturday again, and Kansas City is back to the early slot also where they got beat by the Tennessee Titans (WC last year). So, the Colts got a normal week of prep – no short week talk for them.
  • Kansas City gets a chance with the best offense in the league to scare the playoff spooks away. They haven’t won a home playoff game since 1993 and have only one playoff win since 1993 when Joe Montana was their QB.
  • Four of those playoff loses since 1993 for the Chiefs have come against these Indianapolis Colts. One of them was the remarkable 2013 comeback by the Colts (not sorry for posting this video Chiefs fans).
  • Although Andrew Luck is regarded as one of the best QBs in the league, and he has been great towards the end of the season in 2018, he hasn’t been the best playoff QB.  He does have a winning record at 4-3 but has thrown 11 TD’s to 13 INTS. Those stats won’t cut it if he wants to make a Super Bowl.
  • Luck comes into KC with a much different team then he had back in 2013.  The Colts should be able to run the ball with Marlon Mack against an abysmal KC rush defense, and the Colts defense is play as one of the best left in the league.
  • That Colts defense has forced 26 turnovers during the season.  Maybe the reason why KC hasn’t lost more games is because their defense has forced 27 turnovers.
  • We know the Chiefs defense won’t stop much, but when they do it will be because they get the Colts behind the chains.  Two ways to do that: penalties and sacks.  Chris Jones and Dee Ford need to show up and be dominate for the Chiefs and pressure Andrew Luck.
  • The spotlight will the Pat Mahomes in his 1st playoff start.  Will the moment be too big for him? I don’t think so.  I don’t see this stage altering the way he plays other than maybe one of his first passes being airmailed because of nerves.  He’ll settle down and play fine.
  • What Mahomes needs to quit, is just chucking the ball up grabs.  He’s had a few games this year where that has hurt him and where he’s gotten lucky those passes didn’t cost his team. He’s playing against a Colts defense that had 15 INTs on the season, they’ll make the plays if Mahomes throws those jump balls.
  • Mahomes will also get his #2 WR back in Sammy Watkins.  I am not sure what kind of connection Watkins and Mahomes have, but Watkins is a special talent when he is on the field.  That is just another weapon for the Chiefs.
  • Defensively for the Colts, they are going to have their hands full trying to stop Watkins, Hill, Kelce, and RB Damien Williams.  Williams is going to have to have a solid game running the ball for the Chiefs to win. If its just Mahomes dropping back 40+ times this game, that doesn’t go in the Chiefs favor.
  • What might also help the Colts is them playing against a similar QB in Deshaun Watson last week, and seeing him three times this year.  Both Watson and Mahomes like to run around in the pocket and extend the play.  Watson like to run more but Mahomes will jaunt around as long as possible which puts a strain on DBs.
  • I like the Colts to attack KCs rush defense early and often this game.  How do you stop the Chiefs from scoring?  Run the ball, and play slow.  Luck could come out and throw the ball all over the Chiefs, I would look for Frank Reich to have a game plan set on running the ball.
  • Having said that, Colts win the toss.  I think it’s smart for them to take the ball first and try to get up on that first drive.
  • As sad as it is to say, look for penalties to play a big role in this game.  The Chiefs had the most penalties called on them during the regular season and the Colts defense had 131, second most in the league, called on them.
  • Special Teams always come to play in these types of games.  KC has the best punt returner in football in Tyreek Hill.  The Colts have the best punt return average against them in the NFL at 4.4 yards per return.  They’ve only given up 93 yards all season on punt returns.
  • Weather for this game shouldn’t be an issue.  Overcast skies in the upper 30’s at kickoff.
  • I like the Colts to cover in this match-up.  5.5 points is too much for me where the Colts have a the better defense, and their offense isn’t that far behind the Chiefs. The Chiefs defense hasn’t shown they can stop anybody worth damn and until they do, I will not be betting on them.  I also think this one turns into a scoring in the second half.  Don’t know how much the Colts stop the Chiefs, so give me the over.
    • 56% on the Colts & 67% on the Over.

#4 Dallas Cowboys (+6.5) @ #2 Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) — O/U 49

  • Saturday January 12th, Los Angeles, CA (Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum): 8:15 PM EST on FOX
  • Cowboys are 8-6-2 ATS while the Rams are 7-7-2 ATS.
  • Cowboys are 7-9 in the O/U while the Rams are 7-8-1.
  • Cowboys games have gone over 49 points four times this year while Rams games have done it nine times.
  • The big issue with the Cowboys is their home and road splits.  Lets start wit their record: 7-1 at home, 3-5 on the road. Dak has 14 TD and 4 INT at home, on the road he has 8 TD and 5 INT.  His rating on the road drops from 106.4 to 82.6.
  • The good thing for the Cowboys, is their rushing yards per attempt actually goes up from 4.3 to 4.6.  They have fewer total rushing yards on the road but that’s a product of having to throw more when your down.
  • Defensively the Cowboys are better on the road statistically in almost every category but one, Passing TD’s.  They’ve given up less rushing TDs, lower completion percentage, more interceptions, double the sacks, and less 1st down conversions on the road. The QB rating goes up by only 2 points on the road so that’s not too big of a change.
  • Defensively the Cowboys have given up 22 points on the road this season.  Some of that is inflated because of the Week 17 match-up against the Giants when they gave up 35 and didn’t play everybody.  Other than that, they never game up more than 24 on the road.
  • If they can hold the Rams to only 24 points, you gotta believe the Cowboys will like their chances.
  • Now although the Cowboys are on the road in Los Angeles, I am not sure how much of road game it will be in the stands.  This majority of the people in this stadium are going to Cowboy fans, or celebrities/rich people who don’t give a damn about the outcome other than this game hitting the over.
  • The Rams on the other hand have been the sexy team to pick the last two years, but last year they got bounced by the Falcons at home.  Sean McVay and the Rams gotta win this one or else they’ll be chirping from the outside if McVay can actually win a big game.  The Rams got beat by the Saints and Bears on the road, their biggest games of the year.
  • BUT the Chiefs are 12-4 and the #1 seed in the AFC.  I get that, the Rams won that game. However, the Chiefs are nothing like the Saints, Bears, and Cowboys.  Those three teams actually play defense.
  • Todd Gurley is the key this game (no shit).  Having Jared Goff drop back 35+ times won’t cut it against this Cowboys defense.
  • Gurley hasn’t played since week 15 with inflammation in his left knee. Also, his last two games against the Bears and Eagles were sub-par at best.
  • In two of the Rams 3 losses Gurley had less than 100 total yards.  The other times this happened during the year were two blowouts and the outlier was the shootout against the Chiefs.  That being said, if Gurley is 100 total yards – the Rams are losing.
  • Jared Goff didn’t play good last year against the Falcons, but he also didn’t play bad. He threw for 259 yards, 1 TD, and no INT’s but his completion percentage was only 53.33%.
  • Just like McVay if the Rams don’t win this game and Goff plays poorly, the playoff monkey will be hoping on their backs.

monkey banging symbols

  • The Rams defense also needs to show up.  This team is loaded with names but they just suck against good teams.  They give up 5.99 yards per play, over 5 yards per rush. That 20th ranked defense will need to step up.
  • Rams also need to stop Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Cole Beasley. As much shit as this WR corps has gotten, the addition of Cooper has made all those guys better and Gallup is a good looking rookie WR.
  • I’m not sure who wins this one, I think it’s a great game.  But give me a team that plays great defense, and can run the ball against a defense that doesn’t stop the run well. And I get 6.5 points? I’ll take the Cowboys to cover in this one, and for the under to hit.
    • 57% on Dallas & 53% on the Over.

#5 Los Angeles Chargers (+4) @ #2 New England Patriots (-4) — O/U 47

  • Sunday January 13th, Foxboro, MA (Gillette Stadium): 1:05 PM EST on CBS
  • Chargers and Patriots are 9-7 ATS.
  • Chargers are 8-8 in the O/U while the Patriots are 5-11.
  • Charger games have gone over 48 points seven times while Patriot games have done it six times.
  • Well there was supposed to be a snow game this year in the NFL, but the weather decided to not hold up for us (as of 1/10). All I ever want during the NFL season is just one snow game, that’s all I ask and now I’m not going to get it.
  • I also don’t care if its cold.  The Chargers played in Baltimore last week, they played in Pittsburgh lat in the season, and in Kansas City as well as Denver. The cold wont effect this team.
  • Lets get this west coast team going to the east coast is going to suck thinking out of the way. West coast teams on the road in early time slots are 15-28 for a .349 win percentage.  The rest of the league? 126-265 for a .322 winning percentage.  So actually, west coast teams are better on the road in the playoffs than everyone else.
  • I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again.  The Chargers are the most complete team in the playoffs along with the Saints.
  • The Patriots and Chargers come in with the 7th and 8th ranked defenses respectively. Patriots defense has forced 28 TO’s while the Chargers have forced only 20.
  • I don’t expect many turnovers in this game,  Brady is obviously great at not turning the ball over. Rivers
  • Hey did you guys know Tom Brady is now 40? Did you know he’s older than five head coaches now?  Did you know he’s never lost to Phil Rivers? Let me tell you what, amazing stats. I’m gonna tweet those out in case you forgot.
  • Did you also know Brady has no receivers the ball to throw to, quite frankly he never has.  They just grab bums off the street.
  • Since Brady has no receivers to throw too. I expect two things to happen: very quick passing game to neutralize that Charger pass rush. I’d expect a lot of balls to Edelman and James White. The Patriots offensive line is also one of the worst Brady has had.
  • Secondly, they need to run the ball effectively with Sony Michel. Patriots are a much better team this year when they can run the ball.
  • I love all the play-making on the Chargers defense.  Up front they have Ingram and Bosa. In the secondary they have King, Hayward, and maybe the best player they have in rookie Derwin James.
  • If you like the Pats in this game, then you must like Rob Gronkowski coming back closer to form.  Pats need Gronk to play like Gronk because of their lack of weapons.
  • Patriots have an advantage at QB and Kicker.  Name another position where the Patriots have an advantage? Punter?
  • I am all aboard the Chargers train this year, I think they come out of the AFC so obviously I’m taking the Chargers +4. Besides that, the Chargers are the better team in this match-up.  I think the Chargers come in and get Melvin Gordon going early and roll with him for most of this game.  I like this being a close competitive game but the Chargers winning outright.  Unless the Chargers suffer injuries or the refs just fuck them over, they are going to win this game.  Give me the under as well.
    • 64% on the Chargers & 60% on the Over.

#6 Philadelphia Eagles (+8.5) @ #1 New Orleans Saints (-8.5)O/U 51

  • Sunday January 13th, New Orleans, LA (Mercedes-Ben Superdome): 4:40 PM EST on FOX
  • Eagles are 6-9-1 ATS while the Saints are 10-6 ATS.
  • Eagles are 6-9-1 in the O/U while the Saints are 7-9.
  • Eagle games have gone over 51 points four times while Saint games have done it seven times.
  • This is the only rematch of the entire divisional weekend. I love it.
  • New Orleans comes into this game as the biggest favorite of the weekend.  They get to play at home in the playoffs where they have never lost while Sean Payton and Drew Brees have been there.
  • Big Dick Nick Foles brings his Eagles in after they won a tight defensive game in Chicago.  The Eagles came into New Orleans earlier in the year with Carson Wentz and got smoked 48-7. I wouldn’t take much stock in this game.
  • Lets be honest here, the Eagles got lucky to get out of Chicago with a win. Foles played bad in the first half and if the Bears had a better QB, or better play-calling (however you look at it) then the Bears win that game. Cody Parkey should have made that field goal.  Eagles got lucky. They won their games to get into the playoffs, but they got lucky last week.
  • Lets also remember last years playoffs in the divisional round.  The Falcons had the ball 1st and goal and had some questionable play-calling. Eagles squeaked by and moved on.
  • The Saints had that miracle bullshit in Minnesota happen.  Vikings move on. You could argue last year the two best team in the NFC last year were the Falcons and Saints.
  • Lets look at what some Saints were saying during that Vikings/Eagles NFC Championship game last year.

  • I think the Saints thought they were the best team in the NFL last year.  I believe they would have beat the Eagles last year, and this year they are dead set on proving that.
  • Back to the actual match-up, the Eagles CBs have played well lately but they’re going up against a whole new beast in Drew Brees and company.
  • The Eagles pass rush is gotta be on point and that moron Michael Bennett can’t make any stupid penalties. Bears didn’t make them pay, the Saints will.
  • The Saints haven’t played their best football going into the playoffs, but remember either did the Eagles last year.  Just like the Eagles last year, the Saints found ways to win those games ugly and I love that.
  • If the Eagles are gonna win this game, it’s going to be deep bombs from Foles.  I think it’ll be hard for the Eagles to sustain multiple long scoring drives in New Orleans and that environment.
  • I like the Saints to win this game.  The motivation factor from last year, they are the better overall team here. The home field advantage is ridiculous for the Saints, they won’t lose in that building – not against a an Eagles team that is lucky to be there.  Give me the over as well.
    • 55% on Philadelphia & 64% on the Over.

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