CFB Bowl Season Sportsbook: Monday 12/31

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman:  Cincinnati (-7) vs VT (+7)O/U 52.5

  • Annapolis, MD (Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium): 12:00 PM EST on ESPN
  • Nobody cares about this game.
  • Nobody wants to watch this game.
  • Virginia Tech squeaked in after beating Marshall because they needed a win to become bowl eligible, what a joke.
  • Cinci hasn’t beat a good team all year and they are 10-2. They lost to Temple by 7, who just got smoked by Duke, and Cinci got beat down by UCF in what was a big primetime game back on November 17th.
  • Although VT had an awful year, many thought they would roll over against Marshall because who really wants to go to a shit bowl game?  However, they showed up and pounded a decent Marshall team.  That shows me this team wanted to make a bowl game, and will be pumped to be here.
  • I’ll take Virginia Tech to easily cover the 7, I’d sprinkle a little ML here with them. No idea about the O/U, but fuck it, it’s bowl season, give me the over.
    • 58% on Cincinnati & 70% on the Over.

Hyundai Sun Bowl:  Pittsburgh (+4) vs Stanford (-4) — O/U 51.5

  • El Paso, TX (Sun Bowl): 2:00 PM EST on CBS
  • David Shaw is 65-40-2 ATS.
  • Stanford is always good in bowl games under David Shaw, they are 4-3 under him but in his three loses, two have come in the Rose and Fiesta bowl.  The biggest margin of defeat? 4 points.
  • This will probably be the slowest pace of play game during the bowl season, both teams just want to line up and run the ball every 30 seconds.
  • Pittsburgh plays in the ACC, which sucks if you didn’t know.
  • Bryce Love is sitting out this game for Stanford but they do have a pretty good passing offense behind KJ Costello.
  • I just don’t think Pittsburgh at all and Stanford has played well this season, they have four losses but two were on the road at Notre Dame and Utah, two quality teams. And Stanford has also held its own on the road this season.
  • Give me David Shaw and KJ Costello over a Pittsburgh team thats been outscored on the year. Also give me the under.
    • 56% on Stanford & 57% on the Over.

Redbox Bowl: Oregon (-1.5) vs Michigan St. (+1.5)O/U 45.5

  • Santa Clara, CA (Levi’s Stadium): 3:00 PM EST on FOX
  • Both underachieving teams are here for different reasons.
  • Early on in the year it looked like Oregon could make a run at for the the top of the Pac 12 but they shit the bed during games against Stanford and Washington and then just fell apart.
  • Michigan St. on the other hand has had a down season mostly due to injuries and an awful offense which has been due to some of those injuries.
  • It looks like Brian Lewerke will be starting for the Spartans in this game.  It doesn’t matter if it was him or Lombardi, Michigan St. wants to run the ball.
  • Since WR Felton Davis III got injured, Michigan St. passing game has been missing.  But they are playing an Oregon team that allows over 245 yards passing per game and over 140 yards rushing per game.
  • On the other side of the bowl, Michigan St. has a great defense that is going up against future 2020 1st round draft pick QB Justin Herbert.
  • Michigan St. has one of the best run defenses in the country so Herbert will have to throw the ball to win.  This is an early audition for his draft stock.
  • It should help Oregon and that passing game that stud CB for Michigan St., Justin Layne, is skipping this game to save himself for the NFL Draft.
  • I like Michigan St. to come out on top here.  I think they are the better team and this month off gave them sometime to get healthy and get some guys back. I will also take the over in this game, I think both teams will make it into the 20’s.
    • 62% on Oregon & 50/50 on the Over/Under.

Autozone Liberty Bowl: #23 Missouri (-9) vs Oklahoma St. (+9)O/U 72

  • Memphis, TN (Liberty Memorial Stadium): 3:45 PM EST on ESPN
  • I’ve said it all year, I think Missouri is the 4th best team in the SEC behind Alabama, Georgia, and LSU.  After those three there is a drop off, give me Missouri over teams like Florida (yes I saw the Michigan game), Auburn, or Texas A&M.
  • Oklahoma St. hasn’t been blown out since October, on the road against Kansas St.  They played Oklahoma tough, they beat Texas and West Virginia.  9 points is too much for me.
  • QB Drew Lock is gonna be motivated this game to ball the fuck out.  This is his last chance in a game to show NFL scouts what he can do.  Coming into the year his name was the top on the board for QB’s, now he’s got some work to do to be drafted in the top 10.  This game could go a long way.
  • Missouri is one of the few teams that played both Georgia and Alabama this year.  They got blown out by both, but their other two loses were two points on the road to South Carolina and by one point in that crazy lucky game for Kentucky.
  • Oklahoma St. will be without their 1,000 yard rusher Justice Hill.
  • This should be a fun a one of the more entertaining ones of the bowl season. I will take Oklahoma St. to cover 9 in this game, just too much points in teams that are gonna go up and down the field and won’t stop each other. I also like the over in this one.
    • 57% on Oklahoma St. & 74% on the Over.

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl: #22 Northwestern (+6.5) vs #17 Utah (-6.5)O/U 44

  • San Diego, CA (SDCCU Stadium): 7:00 PM EST on FS1
  • Utah was the only team from the Pac 12 that even won a bowl game last year, and they always seem to show up and play well in their bowl games.
  • Utah is 10-1 in bowls games under Kyle Wittingham.  That, my friends is fucking impressive.
  • 6 of those 10 wins have been by double digits.
  • Northwestern won the Big 10 West, by default pretty much. Wisconsin had an awful year, Iowa couldn’t close anybody out, and Nebraska is still dogs hit until further notice.  Northwester won the Big 10 West because they were the only team that stayed the same, always a solid team thats gonna win somewhere between 7-9 games and be competitive.
  • Make no mistake here though, Northwestern does not have the talent that Utah has. Utah is a very solid team with a very good defense and this game is the springboard for this team going into next year that will be returning tons of guys. Utah should be a favorite to win the Pac 12 South again in 2019.
  • Northwestern hasn’t won a non-conference game all year, I don’t expect them to get a win here.
  • I don’t trust anybody on Northwesterns offense to make a play during this game.  Northwesterns defense could slow up Utah but their offense won’t be able to do enough to win this game.
  • Give me Utah and the under in this one.
  • Psst.. Kyle Wittingham is 10-1 in bowl games.
    • 68% on Northwestern & 58% on the Under.

Taxslayer Gator Bowl: #19 Texas A&M (-7.5) vs NC State (+7.5) — O/U 56

  • Jacksonville, FL (TIAA Bank Field): 7:30 PM EST on ESPN
  • Again, I think the ACC sucks. NC State therefore, sucks.
  • Look at NC States schedule, they didn’t beat anybody worth while.  They got fucking shit on by Clemson, and their game against West Virginia got cancelled. Their best win this year might be beating Virginia at home back in September.
  • NC State loves to throw the ball with QB Ryan Finely who wants to improve his draft stock in this game.
  • On the other hand, NC State does not like to the run the ball.  A&M is going to be able tee off on NC State and their questionable offensive line.
  • NC State will be missing a lot of pieces on offense: WR Kelvin Harmon is sitting this one out because of the NFL draft, he had over 1,000 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. Offensive Coordinator Eliah Drinkwitz is out, he is Appalachian St. new head coach, and Offensive Line Coach Dwayne Ledford is onto Louisville to be a co-offensive coordinator.
  • This is Jimbo Fischers first bowl game as Texas A&M’s head coach. This guy won a national championship not too long ago. The coaching matchup goes to A&M in this one.
  • A&M is 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
  • I will also take Kellen Mond over Ryan Finely every day of the week.
  • Give me A&M in a blowout.  A&M plays in the SEC West and plays good competition all year. NC State, you could argue hasn’t beat an actual good team all year. Give me the over also.
    • 77% on A&M & 73% on the Over.

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