CFB Bowl Season Sportsbook: Saturday 12/29

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl: #10 Florida (+6) vs #7 Michigan (-6)O/U 51

  • Atlanta, GA (Mercedes-Benz Stadium): 12:00 PM EST on ESPN
  • These teams have played way to fucking much.  3 times in the past 3 years, Jesus christ.
  • So, Michigan has starting RB Karan Higdon, DE Rashan Gary, LB Devin Bush, and RT Juwann Bushell-Beatty.
  • Motivation: Michigan had CFB Tournament hopes from the opening week loss to Notre Dame on.  Then they got fucking smoked by their rival Ohio St., again.  How many of these players on Michigan are going to want to show up and play.
  • On the flip side of this, the young guys playing for Michigan with all these players sitting out should be hungry to show fans and players what they can do.
  • Florida on the other hand is under a new regime with Dan Mullen and played well enough to land at #10 in the rankings – though I think its much too high and is because of the chaos college football has seen all year.
  • Michigan is 4-0 all time agaisnt Florida, including 3 wins since 2010.
  • Florida is great a running at the ball with Perine, Scarlett, and and Pierce and has led to them being top 20 in rushing efficiency.  People may look at Rashan Gary being out  as a big factor against the run, but Michigan has played well without Gary this season.  Bush is the biggest loss against the Florida run game for Michigan.
  • Which QB do you trust more in this game?  I’m gonna go with Shea Patterson.  Felipe Franks should not scare Michigan at all.
  • Michigan should come out throwing the ball, Patterson has three future NFL guys at WR in Collins, People-Jones, and Black. Combine that with no Karan Higdon, look for Harbaugh to show his team, new recruits, and Michigan fans that the Michigan offense will look different in the future. Maybe adapt to the fucking times, its not 1956 anymore.
  • I’ll take Michigan to cover.  I haven’t thought Florida is a top 10 team all year, they’ve escaped a few wins in a overrated SEC and I just don’t trust their QB.  I’ll also take the over.
    • 56% on Florida & 53% on the Over.

Belk Bowl: South Carolina (-5) vs Virginia (+5) — O/U 54

  • Charlotte, NC (Bank of America Stadium): 12:00 PM EST on ABC
  • Opposite teams here. South Carolina wants the move the ball fast, and Virginia is SLOW.
  • Had a beef with ACC rankings all year and besides the Big 12, the ACC was the worst conference in the nation. Virginia somehow was ranked but I have no faith in this team.
  • A plus for Virginia, South Carolina’s defense is ranked 621st in S&P+ defense rank.
  • Motivation: First time in 14 years Virginia has made back to back bowl games. They’re also seeking their first bowl in since 2005.
  • South Carolina’s best WR, Deebo Samuel is missing the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft.  That is going to have an effect on a South Carolina team that really put up some points on Clemson in the last game of the year.
  • Also out for South Carolina is DT Javon Kinlaw and CB Keisean Nixon. That is now three started South Carolina is going to have to replace.
  • Virginia has the 12th ranked 3rd down offense while South Carolina has the 38th ranked 3rd down defense.  If Virginia can get into 3rd and 4 or better, I like Virginia’s chances to keep drives going which keeps South Carolina’s offense off the field.
  • Although South Carolina should win this game, I will take the points with Virginia an the under.
    •  60% on South Carolina & 52% on the Under.

Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl: Arkansas St. (+1) v. Nevada (-1)O/U 56.5

  • Tuscon, AZ (Arizona Stadium): 1:15 PM EST on CBSSN
  • Arkansas St. may not be the biggest name in the group of 5 teams but they have made a bowl game for 8 straight years now. So far they are 3-4.
  • Motivation: Nevada on the other hand missed getting to a bowl game the past years.  They last went to a bowl in 2015 when they won the Arizona bowl.
  • Arkansas state may have 8 wins on the season, but not one of those wins came against a bowl eligible team.  Nevada got to play the likes of Vanderbilt, Fresno St, and Boise St.
  • Both of these teams have good offenses and average over 30 PPG. While both of these teams also give up more than 26 PPG.
  • Arkansas St. has only turned the ball over 13 times this year, while Nevada has given the ball up 26 times this year.
  • Nevada is the bigger school here, plays in the better conference, played better competition, and has the better offense.  Arkansas St. literally, hasn’t beaten a good team all year and I don’t see it happening here.  I just hope someone watches this between the Peach and Belk bowl..
  • Give me Nevada and the over.
    • 50/50 Pick & 59% on the Under.

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