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NCAAF

CFB Bowl Season Sportsbook: Friday 12/28

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Purdue (+3) vs Auburn (-3) — O/U 55.5

  • Nashville, TN (Nissan Stadium): 1:30 PM EST on ESPN
  • Two completely different stories here with these teams.  Auburn, top 10 at the start of the year has been a huge disappointment. Purdue on the other hand whooped up on a top 10 team in Ohio State and has gone to back to back bowl games for the first time since 2006-2007.
  • Auburn is favored in this game because of..?  Their name.
  • Motivation: Purdue got a big win with Jeff Brohm staying on as head coach.  This team is going to be fired the fuck up.
  • Auburns coach on the other hand, do they fire Gus Malzahn if Auburn loses this game?  What if they lose really bad?
  • Auburn didn’t show up last year in the Peach Bowl, we’ll see if the show up this year in the Music City Bowl.  I think this team had higher expectations at the start of the year though.
  • Love, love, love the over in this game. Auburns offense has played better since Malzahn took over play calling duties, and Purdue has been scoring buckets of points all year long.
  • I am not convinced Jarrett Stidham is a great QB even though he is declared for the draft.  Maybe that will jazz him up in this game so he plays well.
  • I just really like Purdue in this game.  I think they’re gonna come out firing on all cylinders looking to show their coach made the right decision to stay here and get a nice program building win against an SEC opponent. Also be taking the over.
    • 52% on Purdue and 83% on the Over.

Camping World Bowl: #16 West Virginia (+2.5) vs #20 Syracuse (-2.5)O/U 66

  • Orlando, FL (Camping World Stadium): 5:15 PM on ESPN
  • WVU is going to be without QB Will Grier, WR Gary Jennings Jr, and OL Yodny Cajuste for this game.  Grier and Jennings are both skipping to save themselves for the NFL draft.
  • Playing QB for WVU will now be Jack Allison and Trey Lowe III. Allison has little experience, mostly in blowout wins for WVU.
  • WVU does play in the Big 12 remember, so they can’t rely on this defense to make plays and help out the new QB.  I expect Syracuse will be able to score pretty much at will.
  • Syracuse will be able to score because of their QB Eric Dungey who has been a stud for them.
  • Dana Holgorsen is 2-4 in bowl games at WVU, but did beat Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl in 2012 – not that it matters.
  • More importantly, WVU has gotten beat handily in the past two years at their bowl games.
  • STATISTIC: Syracuse has the best S&P+ Special Teams ranking in the country. Special Teams TD happening folks.
  • Motivation: WVU had Oklahoma at home, a win got them to the Big 12 Championship and another in that game got them into the playoff conversation.  How is this team going to react after that?  Their QB is out, WR, starting OL.  I am not sure this team really wants to show up for this game.
  • Motivation: This is Syracuse’s first bowl since 2013 and they get to go somewhere, two of the last three were at the Pinstripe bowl.
  • I like Syracuse and the over to hit.  WVU can’t stop anybody and Syracuse has over 40 points this year 8 times.  1000% chance they do it again and I don’t think WVU can keep up.
    • 77% on Syracuse and 62% on the Over.

Valero Alamo Bowl: #24 Iowa St. (+2.5) vs #13 Washington St. (-2.5) — O/U 56.5 

  • San Antonio, TX (Alamodome): 9:00 PM EST on ESPN
  • Mike Leach is 1-7 in his last eight bowl games and 1-3 with Washington St.
  • Motivation: Washington St. continues to disappoint at the end of the year.  Get beat by Washington, not show up for a bowl game.  Hopefully this year is different for them.
  • Matt Campbell is 3-1 in bowl games that he has coached, including one win already with Iowa St.
  • Iowa St. faced offenses like Washington St. all year and played well against them.  They beat WVU 30-14, and held** Oklahoma to only 37 at home.  What a world.
  • Iowa State had a backdoor short at the Big 12 Championship but they didn’t lose it so I think this team is excited to be here.
  • Alamo Bowl is low-key one of the best bowls every year. The 2014, 2015, and 2017 games were all classics.
  • You have to go back to 2003 where Nebraska played Michigan St. to find an Alamo Bowl where neither team got to 20 points.
  • Iowa St. is coming in hot, they have won 7 or their last 8 games.
  • I like Iowa St. to win this game outright and for this game to stay under.
    • 55% on Iowa St. and 51% on the Under.
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