Overall Record: 42-38-3
Washington Redskins (+10) @ Tennessee Titans (-10) — O/U 37.5
- Redskins and Titans are both 8-6 ATS
- Redskin games have gone over 37 points eight times while, Titan games have also done it eight times.
- Question, did you watch Saquan Barkley destroy this Redskins front two weeks ago?
- Second questions, have you seen Derrick Henry these past two weeks behind that Titans OL. Did you see Mariota throw a fucking man block last week?
- Mind is baffled, how are the Titans 10 point favorites? But I am taking them.
- Titans defense is starting to play and the Redskins offense has who exactly? Josh Johnson and a washed up AP. Besides that 90 yard run against the Eagles a few weeks ago, AP has been horrible.
- Give me the Titans here to cover here and for the under to hit, I don’t see the Redskins scoring more than two TDs, if that.
- 54% on Washington & 64% on the Over.
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5) — O/U 43
- Ravens are 7-7 ATS while the Chargers are 8-6
- Raven games have gone over 43 points six times – three times on the road, while Chargers have done it nine times.
- Big playoff implication here, I think this is the game of week rather than the Saints/Steelers or Chiefs/Rams based on how this could shake things up in the AFC wild card.
- Ravens lose here and that opens the door the for the Colts and Titans to have a week 17 match-up where the winner is in at the #6 seed. It also keeps the Browns hopes alive. Along with that, Chargers keep putting pressure on the Chiefs to win out or else they might lose the AFC West and #1 seed.
- Lamar Jackson, you are finally going to face a real defense. I think its been said enough everywhere else about how bad the rushing defenses are that Jackson has faced so far. He’s gonna have to throw for 200+ yards in this game if they want to win.
- Melvin Gordon is supposed to be back for the Chargers, that should breathe life back into their running game a big. They’ll need to try and stay balanced as best they can against a great Ravens defense.
- We’ll see if Keenan Allen is gonna be back, if not Mike Williams is gonna be the center of attention for the Ravens. I would look early on to see the Chargers to try and take some shots to Trevor Williams and Travis Benjamin.
- Charger are simply the better team here, and they’re “at home” (LOL). God dammit, I need the AFC Championship to be played in the Chargers tiny soccer stadium so its just an embarrassment for the league. Chargers at home playing the Texans, more Texan fans in the stage, media and people bitching about its such a joke and if they win the Super Bowl they should do the parade in San Diego. Love it. Give me it. Give me the under this game.
- 62% on the Chargers & 66% on the Under.
Houston Texans (+1.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) — O/U 46
- Texans are 6-6-2 ATS while the Eagles are 5-9
- Texans are looking to lock up the AFC South this weekend and keep a game ahead of the Patriots for that coveted #2 seed.
- Big Dick Nick Foles has Eagles fans thinking his gonna have another magical Super Bowl run in him, but I don’t think that is very likely. Although the Cowboys do suck, so maybe they can sneak in as the #4 seed and NFC East champs.
- The Eagles haven’t fared well all year against mobile QBs, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott twice, Marcus Mariota.
- Eagles are getting a lot of love here but the Texans are just that good of a team. As long as Deshaun Watson stays healthy, this is a Super Bowl team.
- Give me the Texans to win outright in a low scoring game.
- 58% on the Eagles & 62% on the Over.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6) @ New Orleans Saints (-6) — O/U 53
- Steelers are 7-6-1 ATS while the Saints are 10-4
- Steelers games have gone over 53 points 5 times this year, only once on the road. Saints games have hit over 53 six times.
- Saints offense has been struggling the past three games but this team has still gone 2-1, pretty impressive. They’ve only scored 33 points in that span. Just shows you how well rounded this Saints team is.
- Saints are finally back home where they’re previous few games they put up 45, 48, and 31 on the board.
- Steelers have been an up and down team all year, who the fuck are they?
- Big Ben is gonna have to be mistake free in this game, none of this random “Big Ben what the fuck was he thinking” plays can happen if the Steelers want to steal one.
- Playoff wise the Saints have a two game lead on the Rams for the overall #1 seed. They’d need to lose out and have the Rams win out to fall to the #2 seed.
- Steelers on the other hand really need to win this game to stay ahead of the Ravens and, wait, the CLEVELAND FUCKING BAKER MAYFIELD LED BROWNS. Yes, there is a scenario where the Browns can win the division with a little help from the Chargers, Saints, and Bengals.
- This is a tough game to pick, the Steelers are so fucking random but 6 points even at home of the Saints against a explosive offense and another good team just seems like too man points.
- Gonna go take the Steelers to cover here, but I don’t think they win. To keep this game close, they’re gonna have to score because the Saints are gonna be home cookin’, give me that over too.
- 58% the Saints & 51% on the Over.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) — O/U 54.5
- Chiefs are 8-5-1 ATS while the Seahawks are 8-4-2
- Chief games have hit over 54 points 8 times, 6 times on the road. Seahawk games have done it four times, twice agaisnt the Rams and and twice at home.
- Right off the bat, I like the under here. Against good defenses like the Broncos, Jags, and Ravens the Chiefs have failed to hit the over. They did do it against the Browns and Chargers twice also who I would say are good defenses. However, being on the road and playing in Seattle I like the Chiefs to get held under 30 points.
- Pretty big playoff implications for both teams in this game, Chiefs need to win to told onto the AFC West and #1 seed. A loss here and the Chargers win out, Chiefs are look at the #5 seed and going to Pittsburgh (most likely) in the Wild Card.
- Seahawks are going to get into the playoffs in the NFC regardless if they win this game or not, I don’t think they’re gonna lose to Arizona next week at home but you want to be the 5 seed in the playoffs so you can get that NFC East winner.
- Seahawks want to keep that running game alive so they can limit the amount of possessions Mahomes and that offense has.
- Since their game against the Cardinals, the Chiefs have not been blowing teams out, every game since then has been one possession and I think this game is the same.
- I’ve said it before in these posts, but Kareem Hunt leaving is killing this team. They are not the same.
- Russell Wilson and Seattle will be able to be balanced and exploit some of that weak Chiefs defense.
- Ole Dougy Baldwin is gonna have a game making Orlando Scandrick look like a fucking loser out there.
- Give me the Seahawks to win outright, and the under to hit.
- 54% on the Chiefs & 65% on the Over.
Moxie’s Lock of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns Over 44