Biggest NFL game of the week happens tonight in Kansas City where the Chiefs have a chance to pretty much all but lock up the #1 seed in the AFC, or the Chargers have the chance put a scare in the Chiefs and with a win tonight, and some luck in the last two games could actually steal the #1 seed from the Chiefs. Because of the divisional tie breaker between the two teams (Chargers have lost two division games, Chiefs haven’t lost any), even with a loss the Chiefs would still stay atop the AFC West and the #1 overall seed in the AFC. Time to make some picks here on the game.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
- I will take the chargers in this game, I like the way they are playing even without Melvin Gordon. Bosa is finally getting back into the groove of things and besides the RB position, this team is pretty much healthy all the way around.
- Kareem Hunt absence is missed on this Chiefs team. All the experts and talk show hosts, especially Colin Cowherd, love to talk about how a RB isn’t an important in the NFL. You can find them anywhere and replace them easy, however I think Hunt is hurting this Chiefs offense. Spencer Ware did well the past two games, but he is also out. Hunt getting removed from this team, especially this late in the year, is going to cost this team a Super Bowl appearance.
- What is the health of Tyreek Hill? Will he be able to play at 100%? Even if this guy is like 80%, he probably is still faster than any DB the Chargers have.
- Big, big new for Chiefs fans: Eric Berry will be playing tonight. Berry is one of the best safeties in the league when he plays, can’t wait to see what kind of impact he has on this Chiefs defense.
- I think Mahomes is gonna make some mistakes this game by trying to do too much. I like the Chargers to actually win outright in a 31-28 type of game.
OVER – 53.5
- 53? For a Chiefs games? Give me that fucking over. Chiefs defense won’t stop Phil Rivers. Chargers defense isn’t gonna stop the Chiefs either.
- This over is a LOCK. One of the easiest bets of the week.
OVER – Keenan Allen Receiving Yards 87.5
- Keenan Allen has been averaging just under 100 yards receiving the past 4 games and went for over 100 in week 1 against this Chiefs defense that has allowed star receivers to light them up all year.
- Chargers are going to use Allen like they did against the Steelers, get him in the slot and let him eat on those Chief LB’s and Safeties.
OVER – Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards 309.5
- If I believe this game is gonna hit the over, then I have to take this bet. With both starting RBs out, Mahomes is gonna need to throw the ball all over the field. I think he gets to 310 passing yards.
UNDER – Longest TD of the Game 49.5
- High flying offenses in this one, but I think every TD scored comes in under the 50 yard mark.
OVER – Total Sacks by Both Teams 4.5
- Because both teams are going to struggle running the ball with 3rd and 4th string RBs, the edge rushers in this game are going to be able to really tee off. Although the Chargers have the better pass rushers, the Chiefs out-sack the Chargers because Phil Rivers is less mobile, but I think both teams combine to get over 5+ sacks.