Baltimore Ravens (+6.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) — Over/Under 51
- Ravens are 6-6 ATS while the Chiefs are 8-3-1.
- Raven games have gone over 51 points twice while Chief games have done it nine times.
- Lamar Jackson has lifted the Ravens to three straight wins through running the ball. However, Jackson has yet to prove he can actually throw the ball. His play may have given a spark for this team but the Chiefs need to treat Jackson as a RB, stack the box, and make him throw the ball to win.
- The Chiefs on the other hand need Spencer Ware to fill in and become a solid RB for them after Kareem Hunt got dismissed from the team.
- This is a big game for the Chiefs, they need to win this game against a really good defense before their game against the Chargers next week and keep that 1 seed.
- The Chiefs could easily lose their next two games and fall from the #1 seed to the #5 seed and have to play on the road during the playoffs. They can’t look past this Ravens team.
- I will take the Chiefs to win by a TD in this game and for the under to hit. I think the Ravens running the ball and their defense will keep this game low scoring so I will take the under also.
- 64% on the Chiefs & 69% on the Under.
Carolina Panthers (-1.5) @ Cleveland Browns (+1.5) — Over/Under 47
- Panthers are 5-7 ATS while the Browns are 7-5 ATS.
- Panther games have gone over 47 points seven times while Browns games have gone over 47 points six times.
- Carolina used to be 6-2 and looked like a lock for the playoffs but have lost four in a row and are not currently in, this team desperately needs a win.
- They are gonna have a hard time doing it against a Browns team that has played a lot better the past few weeks after the Hue Jackson firing.
- Carolina goes as Christian McCaffrey goes. The kid is a fucking stud but it seems like Carolina sometimes goes series without giving him the ball or even looking his way. Maybe it has to do with workload, but when you score on a 7 play drive with McCaffrey getting almost all those touches, I would probably go back to him the next drive.
- The Browns are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs but they are not getting in. Right now, its about playing for pride and showing those coaching candidates out there this is the most attractive job.
- Although the Panthers are struggling I like them to bounce back here. Expect Cam to have a big game in a high scoring games.
- 63% on the Panthers & 80% on the Over.
Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) @ Houston Texans (-4.5) — Over/Under 50
- Colts are 5-6-1 ATS while the Texans are 6-5-1 ATS.
- Colts games have gone over 50 points seven times while Texan games have done it three times.
- The Colts are coming off a horrible 6-0 loss to the Jags on the road.
- Colts were a big frontrunner to grab that 6 seed in the AFC and be a real dangerous team but losing that game at the Jags really hurt their chances. They’ll need some help the rest of the way.
- Texans on the other hand, they might not lose the rest of the way and go 13-3.
- Defense, offense, everything is working well for the Texans. As long as Watson is healthy, this team has a good shot to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
- I like the Colts to cover the 4.5 here. I think they bounce back and play well in a loss. I trust Andrew Luck to now get blown out by anybody. Give me the over as well.
- 56% on Houston & 70% on the Over.
Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) — Over/Under 44
- Eagles are 4-8 ATS while the Cowboys are 6-5-1 ATS.
- Eagle games have gone over 44 points six times while Cowboy games have done it four times.
- Loser leaves town here folks, especially if it’s the Eagles.
- Eagles haven’t look good all year, they have the same receiving weapons plus Golden Tate but are missing a good running game compliment that passing game.
- The Cowboys on the other hand since receiving Amari Cooper have a very balanced offense.
- Cowboys also arguably have the best defense in the game.
- All signs in this game point to the Cowboys winning. The offense, defense, the past few weeks.
- I will take the Eagles to cover here, have to believe this is going to be a very close and low scoring games. Give me that under as well.
- 57% on Dallas & 78% on the Over.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) @ Chicago Bears (+3) — Over/Under 51.5
- Bears are 8-4 ATS while the Rams are 5-5-2 ATS.
- Rams games have gone over 51 points seven times while Bear games have done it four times.
- Rams need to win this game to stay one game up on the Saints. You do not want to have to play in that dome in the NFC Championship games.
- This will be the first real cold weather games for this Rams team. We’ll see how those southern cal boys deal with some Chicago cold and wind.
- Bears are getting Trubisky back which will be a big boost for this offense. The Rams defense hasn’t played that well but does get Aqib Talib back which should really boost the back end of that defense. Regardless, Trubisky and company should be able to put up points on this defense.
- Who gets more sacks this games, Donald or Mack? Probably a good prop bet.
- If the Bears lose this game, that helps the Vikings climb back into the NFC North race. The two teams play week 17 in Minnesota. Bears don’t want it to come down to that games.
- I like the Bears to cover in this game. I think the elements, Trubisky back, primetime game helps the Bears keep this close. I also, take the under.
- 69% on LA & 62% on the Under.
Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks (-3) — Over/Under 45.5
- Vikings are 6-5-1 ATS while the Seahawks are 7-3-2
- Viking games have gone over 45 points four times while Seahawk games have done it six times, including their last four.
- Both teams need a win to stay ahead of teams like the Panthers, Eagles, and Redskins. I would say, the Vikings need this game more than the Seahawks do.
- Seahawks come in on a three game winning streak and look to continue that trend in a primetime game.
- Speaking of primetime, besides the Packers game (surprise, surprise), Kirk Cousins has played like the shit in the Vikings primetime games. This will the Vikings 4th straight primetime game. Count the Saints, Rams, & Packers games earlier in the year, and 4 of their 5 losses and the one tie have all come during primetime games. Yes, I count the main 3:30 PM game as primetime.
- Thats honestly all I needed to hear, I’ll take the Seahawks to cover and for the over to hit in this game.
- 66% on the Seahawks & 84% on the over.
Moxie Lock of the Week
- Pittsburgh Steelers & Oakland Raiders OVER 51.5