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NCAAF

CFB Championship Week Sportsbook

Georgia needs to finish drives off in the Red Zone.  Currently they are 13th in Red Zone percentage, but they are only getting TD's 64% of the time they are in the Red Zone.  They kick too many field goals, that won't beat Alabama. 

ACC Championship Game

Pittsburgh Panthers (+27.5) vs #2 Clemson Tigers (-27.5) — Over/Under 54.5

  • Clemson is 6-6 ATS & Pittsburgh is 7-5 ATS.
  • Clemson has scored over 54 points in their games six times while Pittsburgh games have gone over 54 points six times also.
  • Don’t believe that many Pittsburgh games have hit over 54 and they won. There’s some voodoo magic going on behind the scenes.
  • The biggest factor in this game is going to be the weather.  It is supposed to rain all damn day in Charlotte, before and during the game.  That bodes well for the under, a lot of running the ball, and few scores.
  • Pittsburgh didn’t play Clemson this year but two years ago they did and beat them to give Clemson their only loss of season.
  • Pittsburgh wants to run the ball and slow this game down, however Miami stopped their running game yesterday so I am not sure how they’re gonna move the ball against Clemson.
  • Clemson has actually beat their opponents by 28 points 6 times.  Pretty remarkable.
  • I am not putting any money down on this game, but I would take Clemson to cover, and the under. I see this being a 35-3 type of game.
    • 64% on Clemson & 69% on the Over.

Big 12 Championship Game

#14 Texas (+9) vs #5 Oklahoma (-9) — Over/Under 78.5

  • Texas is 5-6-1 ATS while Oklahoma is 4-7-1 ATS.
  • Texas games have scored over 78 points twice while Oklahoma games have done it SEVEN FUCKING TIMES.
  • Texas two games that scored over 78 were against Oklahoma and West Virginia. Texas really is a team that plays to their competition, which is why they have a losing record ATS.
  • Can’t believe Oklahoma is a 9 point favorite when they constantly give up over 40 points to every team, lost to Texas earlier in the year, and Texas is quality 3 loss team.
  • I don’t think Texas wants to get into another shootout with Oklahoma but if they do, they have proven they can play with Oklahoma.  I think we’ll see Texas early on run the ball and take their time before the snap.
  • One of these Oklahoma games has to hit the under right? Right?
  • We are talking about revenge for Oklahoma, but Texas has to scrap and needed help to get back into this game.  The second time around they’ve each seen each other, I’m gonna take the under.
  • Give me Texas to cover and the under in this game, it has to hit at some point.
    • 50/50 on Texas or OU & 77% on the Over.

Big 10 Championship Game

#21 Northwestern (+14.5) vs #6 Ohio State (-14.5)Over/Under 61.5 

  • Northwestern is 6-4-2 ATS & Ohio State 5-7 ATS.
  • Northwestern games have gone over 61 points in their games twice while Ohio State games have done it seven times.
  • People like to forget that Ohio State has the second ranked offense in college football because their defense is so bad.
  • Northwestern plays a lot like Michigan although I think Pat Fitzgerald will be better at adjusting than Harbaugh is.
  • Ohio State will try to put down a beatdown not matter what to impress the committee.  They have to show they have turned the corner and are the team that played last week against Michigan and not that other team from the rest of the year.
  • Give me Ohio State to cover and for the over to hit.
    • 66% on Ohio State & 67% on the Over.

SEC Championship Game

#4 Georgia (+13.5) vs #1 Alabama (-13.5) — Over/Under 64.5

  • Georgia is 7-4-1 ATS & Alabama is 8-4 ATS.
  • Georgia games have gone over 64 points three times while Alabama games have done it seven times.
  • This is the game of day and how the fuck is Georgia a 13.5 dog. I know Alabama has been the best team all year but teams like LSU, MSST, and Auburn even at half have shown you can stick with Alabama.  Georgia, has a WAY better offense than all those teams and is looking for revenge from last year.
  • Tua will have to throw the ball this 4th quarter to win the game.  Along with Tua, the rest of the Alabama team is gonna have to face adversity in the 4th quarter.  A lot of guys on this team has not had to do that this year.
  • Jake Fromm is gonna have to continue his hot streak for Georgia to pull this one off.
  • Georgia needs to finish drives off in the Red Zone.  Currently they are 13th in Red Zone percentage, but they are only getting TD’s 64% of the time they are in the Red Zone.  They kick too many field goals, that won’t beat Alabama.
  • I love Georgia at 13.5 and I’ll take the under.  Maybe one team gets to 30, but not both of them.
    • 59% on Alabama & 56% on the Over.

AAC Championship Game

Memphis Tigers (+3) vs #8 UCF (-3) — Over/Under 64

  • Memphis is 8-4 ATS & UCF is 8-3 ATS.
  • Memphis games have gone over 64 points nine times while UCF game have done it four times.
  • Big story here is no McKenzie Milton for UCF. We’ll see how UCF decides to run the offense with Quadry Jones.
  • Memphis played UCF tough earlier in the year when UCF needed to come back in the 4th quarter and ended up winning 31-30.
  • If UCF loses this game, it opens it up for whoever wins the Mountain West championship game between Boise State and Fresno State to make a NY6 bowl game.
  • UCF’s defense needs to step up in the game big time to help out the backup QB.
  • I will take Memphis +3 in this game and for the under to hit.
    • 50/50 on UCF and Memphis & 53% on the Over.

Pac 12 Championship Pick: I had Washington -6.  Barley covered.

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Overall Record: 28-34

  • That means, fade all my picks.
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