YTD Record: 26-22-3
New Orleans Saints (-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (+8) — Over/Under 52.5
- Saints are 9-2 ATS while the Cowboys are 5-5-1
- Saint games have gone over 52 points six times while Cowboy games have done it once.
- Saints are a wagon that’s rolling through the NFL. I don’t see that stopping here.
- Offensively the Saints can’t be stopped but what is making them so tough to beat is their defense is playing to a phenomenal level. Anybody but the Rams is going to have a tough time beating this team.
- Dallas has played well offensively since they acquired Amari Cooper (minus the Titans game) and look to continue that trend.
- Dallas has utilized Cooper in a way the Raiders could never think of for some reason. It also helps that he gets some one on one coverage with Zeke running the ball.
- Dallas could have the best defense in the NFL? Crazy to think the strides this defense has made since losing the Packers in a shootout where it was the defense holding this team back.
- Eight is a lot of fucking points for a team that has a good of defense that Dallas does and an offense that can put up points. I will take Dallas the points here at home, however I think it may be a backdoor cover. I will also take the under here.
- 71% on New Orleans & 76% on the over.
Cleveland Browns (+5.5) @ Houston Texans (-5.5) — Over/Under 47
- Cleveland is 7-4 ATS while the Texans are 5-5-1
- Browns games have gone over 47 points six times while Texan games have done it four times.
- Picked this game because it just seemed like the biggest play implication game during the noon slot.
- The Browns are still kind of in the playoff hunt but they have to win this game. Just like the Packers, 8-7-1 is not getting you in. Browns need to win out to have a chance.
- Baker Mayfield is playing great since good ole Hue Jackson was given his papers and sent packing to an even shittier city. At least Cleveland is on a lake.
- Houston on the other hand as reeled off 8 in a row and is a legitimate contender in the AFC as long as Deshaun Watson stays healthy. This team is fighting for the #2 seed, maybe the #1 seed if the Chiefs or Pats lose again and they can win out with a favorable schedule.
- Although both defenses are pretty solid here, I like that both offenses are coming in confident and hot.
- 5.5 is a shitty number to bet on, I’d like this at like 3.5 or 4 much more, but I’ll take the Texans in this game and the over.
- 60% on Houston & 64% on the over.
Minnesota Vikings (+5) @ New England Patriots (-5) — Over/Under 48
- Vikings are 6-4-1 ATS while the Patriots are 7-4 ATS.
- Vikings games have gone over 48 points four times while Patriot games have done it four times also.
- Vikings have their third primetime game in a row where Cousins can quiet down everybody who says he sucks in big games. Honestly don’t give much stock in that Packer game. Packers defense was hobbling around and of course the Packers are the team to let a guy get out of his funk.
- Vikings need to run the ball better with Dalvin Cook that will help open up some play action, not that need it, but it will keep Tom Brady off the field.
- Interestingly enough, it seems like the Patriots want to be a run dominate team when Sony Michel is healthy.
- Look for Tom Brady and Gronk to keep making plays. The Patriots really need the old Gronk to come out and start dominating for them to make a deep playoff run.
- Vikings have the better defense here but they really need to stop Michel, Gronk, Gordon, Edelman, and then Brady to slow up this team. I don’t see that happening. i like the Patriots to get 3+ TD’s this game.
- The Patriots defense is going to have a though time also. I don’t think they have the corners to slow down Diggs or Theilen, it’s all about getting pressure on Cousins. We’ll see what BB comes up with.
- I like the Patriots to win this game but the Vikings cover here in a high scoring game. Give me that over.
- 66% on New England & 73% on the Over.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) — Over/Under 52
- Chargers are 6-5 ATS while the Steelers are 6-4-1.
- Chargers games have done over 52 points four times while Steelers have done it four times also.
- Both teams had their winning streaks stopped by the Broncos the past weeks, but both are coming in playing great football.
- Chargers are coming in without one of their best players though, Melvin Gordon. Gordon could have been saved but for some reason he was kept in the game during a blowout against the Cardinals. Keeping him in that game didn’t make much sense especially with the injuries he had.
- Chargers will have to rely on Austin Ekler out of the backfield, which isn’t a bad second option but we’ll see how he does if he gets 15+ carries like they’d probably like to do with Gordon in a game like this.
- Both defenses are aggressive and do a good job at getting after the QB. Chargers defense has played great and just got Joey Bosa back last week. He’s only going to make this defense more scary.
- Pittsburgh shrugged off Levon Bell not showing up this year, but they’re gonna need to feature James Connor in the running game to prove that point. He should have gotten the ball a lot more carries last week against the Broncos.
- Big Ben, you can’t be making those dumb headed plays this week. Wonder how long it takes till Big Ben gets “hurt.” CANT WAIT.
- I’ll take the Steelers in this game and the over mainly because Melvin Gordon isn’t there to slow this game up for the Chargers. I think this is a shootout, and the weather looks good so far (Thursday Night) for December in Pittsburgh.
- 51% on the Chargers & 83% on the Over.
Washington Redskins (+6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6) — Over/Under 45
- Redskins are 7-4 ATS while the Eagles are 3-8 ATS.
- Redskin games have gone over 45 points four times while the Eagles have done it six times.
- Redskins are reeling and won’t make the playoffs with all those offensive injuries but they can make things interesting and play spoiler.
- Eagles really need to win this game if they want to pull closer to the Cowboys who will lose on Thursday Night.
- Both teams are playing well defensively, and both offensives are struggling. Redskins because of injuries, Eagles because of…?
- Eagles need to keep giving Josh Adams the damn ball. That running game opens everything up.
- I think the Eagles are on the up and up and the Redskins are spiraling downward. I’ll take the Eagles and the over in this game.
- 59% on the Eagles & 75% on the Over.
MOXIES DOUBLE LOCK OF THE WEEK:
- Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) vs San Francisco 49ers
- Green Bay Packers (-14.5) vs Arizona Cardinals