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NCAAF

CFB Week 13 Sportsbook

Big game here for the G5 teams.  Haven't watched a game of either all year, lets be honest. 

Didn’t get Week 12’s sportsbook out last week, but I did make my picks known through twitter. 

https://twitter.com/moxie_the/status/1063847215058296835

Went 3-7 last week. probably a good thing I didn’t put out that blog to embarrass myself.  Probably shouldn’t have even linked that tweet, just deleted it and forgot it even happened. Anyway, that brings my total record now to under .500 at 22-24.  Onto the Week 13 games, LOTS of big games this week. See if we can’t win a few and get back over .500. 

FRIDAY 11/23 GAMES

  1. #9 UCF(-14) @ USF (+14) — Over/Under 68.5
    • UCF is 7-3 ATS while USF is 4-7
    • UCF games have gone over 68 points three time while USF games have done it three times also. 
    • Well USF was undefeated a month ago and UCF was hoping this USF team would be ranked a go down asa good win for them, but USF hasn’t won a game since October 20th. They’ve lost to Houston, Tulane, Temple, and Cincinnati. 
    • UCF meanwhile just came off their biggest win of the year in primetime, stomping Cincinnati 38-13. 
    • Offensively, this team hast scored less than 30 points since their bowl game against Arkansas State in 2016. 
    • Love UCF to cover in this game.  I don’t think USF scores enough for this game to go over 68.5. Give me the under. 
      • 72% on UCF and 82% on the over. 
  2. #6 Oklahoma (-2) @ #13 West Virginia (+2)Over/Under 80
    • Oklahoma is 4-7 ATS while West Virginia is 6-3-1 ATS. 
    • Oklahoma games have gone over 80 points five times while West Virginia games have done it twice. 
    • This will be the best Big 12 game of the year besides the Chiefs and Rams on MNF. 
    • Oklahoma plays no fucking defense at all, it’s disgusting.  They just gave up 40 to fucking Kansas. 
    • West Virginia is coming off a bad loss to Oklahoma St. where they blew a lead in the 4th quarter but if they win this game, they go to the Big 12 Championship game, presumably against Texas. 
    • I don’t see any defense making a stop here unless it’s a turnover, probably returned for a touchdown. 
    • Kyler Murray is the only guy on Oklahoma that is keeping this team afloat, without him the Oklahoma team as 3 or 4 losses this year. 
    • I think West Virginia is the better overall team here, and I guess the kinda have a better defense, and get this game at home on a Friday Night were all the West Virginias are gonna be moonshined up and ready to fuck. 
    • Give me West Virginia in this game, and I’ll take the over. Obviously. 
      • 66% on Oklahoma and 82% on the over. 
  3. #16 Washington (+3) @ #8 Washington St. (-3)Over/Under 54
    • Washington is 2-9 ATS while Washington St. is 10-1 ATS. 
    • Washington games have gone over 54 points three times while Washington State games have gone over 54 points six times. 
    • Huge game here in the Pac 12.  Washington St. has the Pac 12’s only outside shot at the College Football Tournament but they have to get over a Washington team they haven’t beat since 2012. 
    • Washington St. struggled the past few games, inching out some win but really took it to an Arizona team that was playing well. 
    • Washington on the other hand is winning ugly and not convincingly against some poor teams like Oregon State and Stanford. 
    • This line opened at 54 and is now all the way down to 49.  Crazy, I like points in this game. 
    • I’ll take Washington St. to cover and the points.  I think this is the year Washington St. makes the jump and gets to a NY6 bowl game.
      • 70% on the Washington St. and 62% on the Under. 

SATURDAY 11/24 GAMES

  1. #4 Michigan (-5) @ #10 Ohio State (+5) — Over/Under 56
    • Michigan is 6-5 ATS while Ohio State is 4-7 ATS
    • Michigan games have gone over 59 three times this year while Ohio State games have done it six times. 
    • The biggest game of the weekend right here, and the biggest game in Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan career. 
    • Since losing to Notre Dame week 1, Michigan as run through everybody on their schedule beside Northwestern on the road and an Indiana team that always gives them fit. 
    • Michigans defense is for fucking real.  If they have Winovich back after that cheap shot by Indiana, their d-line is going to cause serious problems for Ohio States offensive line which is a very weak part of this team. 
    • Ohio State has been squeaking by all year, just barely winning some games.  One game they win by defense, the next by offense.  This team is so unpredictable at which unit is gonna show up.  The never show up during the same game. 
    • Urban Meyer also has “health” problems.  I wonder if there is an over/under bet on how many times Urban is bent over after a big play. 
    • Why is this game never played at 2:30 or in primetime?  I hate this “tradition” that the game has to always be played at 11 AM.  Give it its due and put it in the big boys slot. 
    • As a Michigan fan, I have no doubt that Ohio State will play its best fucking game of the year. 
    • Having said that, I’ll take Michigan in a fucking blowout. Revenge tour on bitches.  Michigan by 1000.  Oh, and I’ll take the under. 
      • 56% on Michigan and 80% on the Under. 
  2. Auburn (+25.5) @ #1 Alabama (-25.5)Over/Under 52.5
    • Auburn is 5-6 ATS while Alabama is 7-4 ATS. 
    • Auburn games have gone over 52 points twice while Alabama games have done it eight times. 
    • Auburn sucks, Alabama rolls. 
    • It’s a rivalry game so I think Auburn will keep this within 25. Just kidding, they’re getting blown the fuck out. 
    • Give me Alabama in a blowout, and the over. 
      • 55% on Alabama and the Under. 
  3. #7 LSU (+1.5) @ #22 Texas A&M (-1.5) — Over/Under 47.5
    • LSU is 5-6 ATS while Texas A&M is 8-3. 
    • LSU games have gone over 47 points five times while A&M games have done it eight times. 
    • If this line doesn’t say anything about what Vegas actually thinks about the SEC then I don’t know.  If LSU is really the #7 team in the country, they should be favored in this game.  However, Vegas like most people should know that LSU is a good, not great, team and has gotten lucky in a few games this year. 
    • Texas A&M shouldn’t be ranked but this season has so much chaos they are. 
    • I’ll take A&M at home against a mediocre LSU offense.  I think A&M can score a few points on this LSU defense. Give me the under as well. 
      • 55% LSU and 86% on the Under. 
  4. #21 Utah St (+3) @ #23 Boise St. (-3) — Over/Under 68
    • Utah St. is 10-1 ATS while Boise St. is 9-2 ATS. 
    • Utah St. games have gone over 68 points eight time while Boise St. games have done it four times. 
    • Big game here for the G5 teams.  Haven’t watched a game of either all year, lets be honest. 
    • But Boise St. isn’t the Boise St. teams we have though of in the past.  Utah St. only loss was on the road against Michigan St. in week 1 when they were a fully healthy team. 
    • Give me the fucking over and Utah St. on the road.  Had a scare last week against Colorado St. but they escaped and are ready for the Broncos. 
      •  
  5. #3 Notre Dame (-12) @ USC (+12)  — Over/Under 53.5
    • ND is 6-4-1 ATS while USC is 3-8 ATS. 
    • ND games have gone over 53 points five times while USC games have done it six times. 
    • Notre Dame by 26.  Over. 
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