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NFL Packers

NFL Week 12 Sportsbook

Kirk Cousins fucking sucks in primetime. 

Season Record: 18-14-3

Had a tough week last week that included three ties, went under .500 in the NFL for the first time all year.  Got a lot of big games this week and we’ll pick em all including every Thanksgiving Day game. Lets. Go. 

Thanksgiving Day Games 

  • Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions (+3)Over/Under 45
    • Bears are 7-3 ATS and Lions are 6-4 ATS. 
    • Bear games have gone over 45 points six times while Lion games have done it six times. 
    • The Bears are looking like the best team in the NFC North after beating the Vikings on Sunday Night but they have a quick turnaround, on the road against the Lions who just came off a nice win over Carolina.
    • The Lions are such a Jekyl and Hyde team, they look good one week and then dogshit the next. 
    • These two teams played two weeks ago with the Bears winning by 8 and hitting the over easily. 
    • The Bears may be 7-3 but since losing back to back against the Dolphins and Patriots they have beating teams like the Jets, Bills, Detroit and Minnesota. The other teams?  Seattle, Cardinals, and Buccaneers.  Point being, the Bears have beaten on two “real” teams all year, so how good are they actually. 
    • Because of the short week, Detroit players used to this quick turnaround, and the Bears being overhyped just a little bit, i’ll take the Lions to cover in this game.  I wish this number was just a bit bigger but as of Tuesday I’ll still take the 3 points.  Will probably even tap a little a dough on the money line with the Lions.  Give me the over as well, Lions won’t stop the Bears and they’ll get their points as well. 
      • 66% on the Bears and 57% on the Over. 
  • Washington Redskins (+7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) — Over/Under 40.5 
    • Redskins are 7-3 ATS while the Cowboys are 4-5-1
    • Redskins games have gone over 40 points four times while Cowboy games have done it five times. 
    • Cowboy games have gone over 40 points in each game this month. 
    • Redskins offense is in shambles, the 3 of the offensive linemen are out, arguably their top WR is out, and now the starting QB is done for the year and here comes Colt McCoy. 
    • McCoy is serviceable as a starter and I think with AP running the ball the Redskins can easily keep this game within 7.5 points. 
    • This number seems like an overreaction to the Cowboys past two wins against two teams that might only win 6 or 7 games this year.  
    • Both defenses in this game are real and very good but 40.5 is such a low number.  In wins, the Redskins are a very low scoring team, but in loses the games are higher scoring. 
    • Give me the Redskins and the points, and I’ll reluctantly take the under in this game. If I was throwing money down on this game, I would stay away from the over/under.  I would stay away from this game all together actually, but we all know come Thursday afternoon after some turkey and stuffing, I’m gonna need a little pick me up and nothing like throwing done some cash on a game you don’t like to get the heart racing again. 
      • 59% on Dallas and 68% on the Over. 
  • Atlanta Falcons (+13.5) @ New Orleans Saints (-13.5) Over/Under 60
    • Falcons are 3-7 ATS while the Saints are 8-2 ATS. 
    • Falcon games have gone over 60 points three times while Saints have done it five times. 
    • Saints will not lose in the dome, Guaran-fucking-teed. These two teams played a great game earlier in the year where the Saints won 43-37, however that was with a much healthier Falcons team on the offense and defense. 
    • Sean Peyton is on some kind of revenge tour through the NFL this year, he knows he probably had the best team in the NFL last year and because of one mistake they weren’t able to make the Super Bowl.  He’s making a point here by blowing teams out, and I think it continues on Thursday. 
    • Give me the Saints to blowout the Falcons, and the over to hit.  I’m looking at like a 42-24 game here. Saints keep on rolling. 
      • 69% on the Saints and 82% on the Over. 

Sunday Games

  • New York Giants (+6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6) — Over/Under 46.5
    • Giants are 4-5-1 ATS while the Eagles are 3-7. 
    • Giant games have gone over 46 points six times while Eagle games have done it five times. 
    • This game is for last place in the NFC East.. wow. 
    • OBJ said the Giants would win out and so far they have beaten the 49ers and Bucs in close games. So far so good. 
    • Eli Manning has looked a little bit better mainly because they’ve played two bad defenses and his offense line has given him some more time. 
    • Saquan Barkley is a fucking stud.  Between him and OBJ making plays every game, Eli can be mediocre and this team can still score points. 
    • The Eagles are going the opposite direction, they are a shell of lasts years team. 
    • They really need to start incorporating Golden Tate into the offense more and start running the ball more with Josh Adams. 
    • Josh Adams is reminding me of Aaron Jones in Green Bay.  Adams is clearly the best back the Eagles have right now and he needs to get the ball more for them.  Pederson is a better coach than McCarthy and I think he’ll get it done 
    • Carson Wentz also needs to play better for this Eagles teams.  He has cost them some games late with his play.
    • I can’t believe I’m saying this but give me the +6.5 with the Giants and the over. 
      • 50% on NYG/Eagles and 69% on the over. 
  • Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)Over/Under 47.5
    • Seahawks are 5-3-2 ATS while the Panthers are 5-5
    • Seahawk games have gone over 47 points four times while Panther games have done it six times. 
    • Big game here for the NFC Wild Card. Panthers two weeks ago were looking as a lock with only two losses, Seattle has lost two of three and sit as the 7 seed. 
    • Panthers lost two bad games on the road, getting blown out by the Steelers and then losing to the lowly Lions.  I like the Panthers back at home. 
    • Seahawks lost to Goff and River but managed to beat Rodgers.  If they can go 2-2 against those three and Cam Newton, that will be huge.  A win here for the Seahawks really muddles the NFC WC even more. 
    • Panthers need to get back to running the ball effectively with Christian McCaffery. Seahawks are good team to exploit that, I expect a lot of running with McCaffery, Newton, and some WR sweeps. 
    • Seattle also needs to keep running the ball effectively. When teams can just tee off on Wilson, the Seahawks are not a good team. 
    • I’ll take the Panthers to cover in a close game throughout, and the over. Panthers offense gets back on track with a 30+ point game. 
      • 68% on Seattle and 62% on the Under. 
  • Miami Dolphins (+10) @ Indianapolis Colts (-10) — Over/Under 50.5
    • Dolphins are 5-5 ATS while the Colts are 5-4-1. 
    • Dolphin games have gone over 50 points three times. Colts games have gone over 50 six times. 
    • SNEAKY BIG GAME in the AFC and the Wild Card position.  If I’m a division leader in the AFC, I am rooting for the Dolphins because I do not want to see the Colts in the playoffs. Get me away from them. 
    • Currently the Dolphins, Colts, Ravens, Bengals, and Titans are all tied at 5-5 for that 6 seed in the AFC.  Chargers are gonna win the 5 seed barring a remarkable collapse on their part. 
    • Colt are hot, hot, hot and so is that offensive line and Andrew Luck.  Luck needs to be in the MVP conversation, I understand the Colts won’t win more than 10 games but he is playing at an MVP level. 
    • Big thing for the Dolphins here, they are getting Ryan Tannehill back at QB. Osweiler was fun but my God he can’t score. 
    • Dolphins need to give Kenyan Drake the fucking ball. So much more explosive when he is involved in the offense. 
    • Dolphins get Tannehill back, Colts are this odd team that blows out the Titans but plays close with the Jags but blows out the Bills but plays a close game with the Raiders. Colts just came off a blowout?  Give me the close game.  I like the Dolphins to cover these 10 points, just too much.  I also like offense in this game, I’ll take the over. 
      • 57% on Miami and 66% on the Over. 
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Denver Broncos (+3) — Over/Under 46.5 
    • Steelers are 6-3-1 ATS while the Broncos are 4-5-1. 
    • Steeler games have gone over 46 points six times while Bronco games have gone it five times. 
    • Denver needs this game badly to keep their playoffs hopes alive and I’m still not sure 12 weeks in what this team is. Defense can play well, but suck also.  Offense can play well, but then suck balls the next week. 
    • Steelers are fucking rolling. 
    • Steelers offense is balling. 
    • Steelers defense is playing much better. 
    • Can’t wait for Big Ben to try and trot is away from Von Miller and the boys. 
    • Give me a relatively close game and the under here.  I’ll take the Steelers -3. 
      • 64% on the Steelers and 58% on the Under. 
  • Green Bay Packers (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) — Over/Under 47.5  
    • Packers are 4-5-1 ATS while the Vikings are 5-4-1
    • Packer games have gone over 47 points seven times while Viking games have done it four times
    • Packers need this game to stay in the playoff hunt after losing 3 of 4 in which they two they blew fourth quarter leads. 
    • Kirk Cousins fucking sucks in primetime. 
    • Vikings offense is having troubles running the ball, enter the Packers front seven without Mike Daniels.  Vikings will have success running the ball.  Vikings will have success throwing the ball. 
    • The question here is are the Packers going to play hard for McCarthy after last week. Is Rodgers going to start listening to his coaching, hit some check down, step into throws and hit guys in stride for real big plays. 
    • I refuse to believe Rodgers will let this game get away from the Packers.  This is where he broke his collarbone last year, another primetime game, and he has heard how miserable he as been in the 4th quarter the past few games. 
    • Give me the Packers and for the over to hit.  No much defense in this game I don’t think. 
      • 74% on the Packers and 53% on the Under. 

 

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