NFL Week 11 Sportsbook

Give me 3 points and the Chiefs.  And you know what? Fuck it. Give me that god damn over. 

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks (-3) — Over/Under 49.5

  • Packers are 4-5 ATS, Seahawks are 5-3-1
  • Packer games have gone over 49 points four times while Seahawks games have done it three times. 
  • Packers are coming off a dominating win against the Dolphins where they finally ran the damn ball and gave Aaron Jones the touches he deserves. 
  • Aaron Rodgers still isn’t playing to an Aaron Rodgers level. 
  • Seattle is a house of horrors for Green Bay, the replacement refs, week 1 in 2014, and the NFC Championship game. 
  • Seattle has come off two tough loses to to very quality teams in the Chargers and Rams. 
  • Both teams should run the ball a lot in this game, and each team struggles to stop the run. 
  • Winner of this game is in good position to take control of that #6 seed in the NFC. 
  • Call me homer, I’ll take the Packers to win a close game and give me the under. 
    • 54% on Seattle and 63% on the over. 

Houston Texans (-3.5) @ Washington Redskins (+3.5) — Over/Under 43

  • Texans are 4-4-1 ATS while the Redskins are 6-3. 
  • Texan games have gone over 43 points four times while Redskin games have done it three times – all in blowouts. 
  • I don’t think this game is a blowout, so give me that under. 
  • Redskin games have never had any lead changes. Either Redskins are up the whole game, or down the whole game. 
  • Houston has reeled off six wins in a row, but on the road against a good Redskin team will be their toughest game this season. 
  • Washington’s field also sucks to play on. 
  • Redskins are banged up all across the offensive line. JJ Watt and Clowney are going to have a DAY. 
  • Give me the Texans here in a one TD game and the under. 
    • 68% on the Texans and 53% on the under. 

Dallas Cowboys (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons (-3)Over/Under 48.5 

  • Cowboys are 3-5-1 ATS and the Falcons are 3-6
  • Cowboy games have gone over 48 points just once, while Falcon games have done it six times. 
  • Loser of this game is most likely out of the playoff picture and is gonna need some major help to get in. 
  • Dallas had a very impressive week at the Eagles last week but looked like shit the previous week against the Titans.  I have no idea what team were going to get, but I think we’ll get a team that is closer to the one we saw against the Titans. 
  • Amari Cooper has helped Dak a little bit, but he still has yet to pop in a game.  The Falcons have a poor defense because of injuries, Dallas should be able to put up some points here. 
  • Atlanta meanwhile is coming off a bad loss at the Browns. Atlanta has had an up and down year on offense.  Some weeks they look like the Atlanta of two years ago and other weeks they look like Sarkisian at 4 AM on an LA street. 
  • I like Atlanta to bounce back in a higher scoring game.
    • 56% on Dallas and 91% on the Over. 

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Chicago Bears (-2.5) — Over/Under 45

  • Vikings are 5-3-1 ATS while the Bears are 6-3
  • Viking games have gone over 45 points four times, while Bears games have gone over 45 points six times. 
  • First note, Bears are remarkably healthy. 
  • This is the biggest games for the Bears since 2013 Week 17 matchup against the Packers for the division, and they get it at home on Sunday Night. 
  • All the rookie QBs and Patrick Mahomes have covered up what a great season Mitch Trubisky has had since Week 4. Kid is really slinging the ball, albeit against poor defenses or very poor teams (Jets, Bills).  This will be his biggest test against a Vikings defense coming into their own. 
  • Vikings should get Stefon Diggs back this week which is gonna help. 
  • Can the Vikings be the first team to actually block Khalil Mack?  I think not. 
  • Kirk Cousins doesn’t play well in big games, or he does but then makes a boneheaded decision towards the end of the game.  He needs to step up if the Vikings are going to take the next step. 
  • I think both offenses struggle in this game, but how awesome would it be to see a shootout on Sunday night in the black and blue division. 
  • I am going to go with the home team, the biggest game in Chicago since 2013, I’m going to go with the crowd.  I think Matt Nagy comes in with a great offensive game plan that keeps Trubisky from making mistakes and the Bears defense gets a few turnovers off of Cousins. Give me the under here also. 
    • 64% on Minnesota and 55% on the Under. 

Kansa City Chiefs (+3) @ Los Angeles Rams (-3) — Over/Under 63.5

  • Chiefs are 8-2 ATS while the Rams are 4-5-1 ATS
  • Both Chiefs and Rams have had their games go over 63 points four times.  
  • NFL made the right decision in moving this game back to LA based on those shitty field conditions in Mexico City. This move also helps the over. 
  • Rams are without Cooper Kupp the rest of the year, but McVay is so good at scheming that Reynolds will fill in alright.  And I say believing Cooper Kupp is the best overall WR the Rams have. 
  • Lets be real here Rams fans (where ever you people are, not LA obviously), your defense is bad.  Marcus Peters is bad. Andy Reid is going to the throw the fuck out of the ball right at Peters. Expect Tyreek Hill to go off this game. 
  • The Chiefs defense meanwhile, has played better as of late and is coming into its own. Getting Justin Houston back is really helping the pass rush out and makes that secondary look not as bad. 
  • Mahomes and this offense is going to have a field day doing whatever the fuck they want. 
  • McVay and the Rams oddly enough, are gonna have to pound Todd Gurley and that run game to keep the Chiefs off the field. 
  • I don’t think the Rams are nearly has good as their record, I think the Saints are better and nobody in the NFC is afraid to go to LA in the playoffs.  Give me 3 points and the Chiefs.  And you know what? Fuck it. Give me that god damn over. 
    • 85% on KC and 57% on the Under. 


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