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NCAAF

CFB Week 11 Sportsbook

Oh and don't you worry MSST fans, if you guys lose this week by 29 you'll probably only drop to like #20 in the rankings. No big deal! You played Alabama and lost, so thats a plus for your resume! yay!

#16 Mississippi State (-25) @ #1 Alabama (-25) — Over/Under @ 54

  • MSST is 5-3 ATS while Alabama is 603 ATS
  • MSST games have gone over 54 points twice while Alabama games have done it six times.
  • MSST offense will pose the biggest threat to Alabamas defense because of QB Nick Fitzgerald, he can run the ball very well.
  • MSST defense will probably be the second best defense Alabama faces behind LSU.
  • I would like MSST much more if this game was being played at MSST.  However, I think Nick Fitzgerald can keep this game relatively close in 2018 Alabama game standards.
  • Oh and don’t you worry MSST fans, if you guys lose this week by 29 you’ll probably only drop to like #20 in the rankings. No big deal! You played Alabama and lost, so thats a plus for your resume! yay!
  • The only concern for Alabama is the health of their starting QB.
  • I’ll take MSST to cover the 25 points, and for the game to hit the over.
    • 77% are on Alabama & 57% on the Under.

#10 Ohio State (-4) @ #18 Michigan State (+4) — Over/Under @ 52

  • Ohio State is 3-6 ATS and Michigan St. is 4-5.
  • Ohio State game have gone over 52 points eight times this year, while Michigan St. games have done it twice.
  • Both teams coming in performing under expectations even though Ohio State is 8-1, its a very shaky 8-1.
  • Michigan St. went back to Lewerke last week and they won in spite of him, they ran the fuck out of the ball on Maryland and that run game and suffocating defense helped them dominate Maryland.
  • Ohio State offensively has been mediocre this year, even though Haskins is throwing the ball all over the field, this team can’t run the ball well and now they get to play one of the best run defenses in the country. Good luck.
  • Ohio State needs to dominate this game to stay in the playoff discussion.
  • Michigan State win they all but wrap up the Big Ten East for their rival Michigan.
  • The 11:00 AM kickoff shows how far these two teams have fallen year.  In August I would have said this would be an undefeated Ohio State coming in to play a 1 or 2 loss Michigan State team at night.  Now, we’re kicking off the Big Tens biggest game of the week at 11:00. (yes I see you Northwestern/Iowa).
  • I will reluctantly take Michigan State in this game to cover.  I think Ohio States poor defense will keep giving up those big plays, and Michigan States defense will keep them in this game.  I’ll also take the under. Also, its gonna be COOOLLLDDDDD out there Saturday morning.
    • 67% on Ohio State & 76% on the Under.

Oklahoma State (+20.5) @ #6 Oklahoma (-20.5) — Over/Under @ 76.5

  • OK ST & OU are both 4-5 ATS
  • OK ST games have gone over 76 points one (did score exactly 76 vs Kansas), while OU has done it five times.
    • Holy shit, I did not think OU games have gone over 76 five times.  That is fucking crazy.
  • We have a Big 12 game here, we have bedlam, we have an underperforming OK ST team on the road, we have a 2:30 kick off.  I like the 2:30 kick off for OK ST sake.
  • OU is just scoring at will on offense, they’ve put up 50 more in three straight games, and scored 45 in that 4th game vs Texas.
  • OK ST has played three games on the road all year, one was against Kansas so I’m not sure that counts, the other two were at Kansas State and Baylor – they lost both. I don’t like this team on the road.
  • I like OU to keep rolling but I do not like them to cover. I think OK ST can keep this game close enough on the road against an awful OU defense. Because I think they keep this under 20 points, that means they’re gonna have to score at least 28 points.  So I’ll take the over in this game as well, I feel very fucking nervous about it.
    • 58% on OU & 78% on the Over.

#24 Auburn (+14.5) @ #5 Georgia (-14.5)Over/Under @ 50

  • Auburn is 4-5 ATS while Georgia is 5-3-1
  • Auburn games have gone over 50 points three times this year while Georgia games have done it six times this year.
  • Honestly not sure how Auburn is ranked.  I think the logic is this: Texas A&M played Alabama and only lost by 22, Texas A&M lost to Clemson by 2, therefore Auburn who beat Texas A&M must replace Texas A&M in our rankings even though they do not deserve it. Logic.
  • I like Georgia here.  They had a misstep at LSU getting beat by 20, but then rebounded by beating Florida and Kentucky in convincing fashion.  I think in the SEC there is Bama, then a step below is Georgia, then everyone else. Auburn isn’t that good, A&M isn’t that good, Florida isn’t that good.
  • This is a night game for Georgia.  Bad for Auburn.
  • I like Georgia to cover here, and for the over to hit.
    • 51% on Auburn & 55% on the Over.

#2 Clemson (-20.5) @ #17 Boston College — Over/Under @ 58

  • Clemson is 5-4 ATS while BC is 7-2
  • Clemson and BC games have gone over 58 four times each this year.
  • I’ll be honest, I haven’t watched a lot of BC this year – all I know is the ACC is crap this year and the fact that Boston College and Syracuse are both ranked this high is indicative of how the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 have cannibalized each other this year, and how down the Pac 12 is.
  • Clemson has been shitpumping teams since Trevor Lawerence has gotten in the groove, which was the right decision if they want to play with Alabama.
  • Here’s what I know. College Game Day will be there, the game has sold out, and it is a night game.  Here is what I also know: Clemson is a million times better than Boston College.  I know I’ve said in previous blogs this is football and any team can win on any given night and it doesn’t necessarily mean they are better than said team they beat.  However, Clemson is going to destroy Boston College.
  • Give me Clemson covering, and the over.
    • 73% on Clemson & 50/50 on the Over/Under

 

Moxie CFB Lock of the Week :  West Virginia (-12) vs TCU

  • Easiest win of the whole weekend.

 

 

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