Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) @ Baltimore Ravens (-2) — O/U 47
- Steelers are 4-3 ATS while the Ravens are 4-4 ATS.
- Steeler games over gone over 48 or more five times this year while Ravens games have gone at or over that number three times.
- Baltimore started off hot but went 1-3 in October, their only win was a shutout of the Titans and they lost a very close game to the Saints.
- The Ravens are a very well rounded team, and can play with anybody. They just seem to not show up defensively some games.
- Pittsburgh on the other hand has played much better since their slow start, especially their defense which picked up their game big time in October allowing only 17, 21, and 18 points in their games.
- LEVON BELL WHO?
- I can’t believe not one of the Raven/Steeler games isn’t in primetime or even featured late game on CBS. This is fucking insane and stupid. Both games played at noon kickoff, did they even happen? But don’t worry guys, we get to watch the shitty NFC East teams almost every fucking week in primetime. Put a fork in my eye. Also, not one of these games was played late enough in the year for snow. Fuck you NFL, fuck you.
- I like the Steelers in this game, and the under. This is an old school (should be in primetime) game and I’ll take the Steelers to win on a late field goal.
- 77% on Steelers & 52% on the UNDER.
Los Angeles Chargers (PK) @ Seattle Seahawks (PK) — O/U 47.5
- Chargers are 3-4 ATS while the Seahawks are 4-2-1
- Charger games gave gone 48 or over five times this year. Seahawk games have gone over 48 twice this year.
- Both of these teams like to do the same thing, run the ball effectively which can open up some shots downfield, play ball control football.
- Seahawks have surprised people these past few weeks, looking like the Seahawks of 5 years ago.
- Chargers may be without Melvin Gordon this week again, but Ekler is a quality backup that is very good catching the ball out of the backfield. Although Ekler has almost 40 less carries than Gordon, he is averaging 5.8 YPC.
- Chargers are coming off the bye week after a solid win over Tennessee in London. Their defense has played better in October, albeit against some poor offenses in Tennessee, Oakland, and Cleveland. Alright the Cleveland game was pretty nice on the road, nobody expected that kind of beat down.
- Seahawks are coming off a VERY NOICE road win over the Lions and start their rugged November schedule against Phil Rivers who is on FUCKING FIRE this year.
- I like the Chargers in this game and to take the over. I think both of these offenses are playing better than the defenses they are going up against, and both offenses pose a ton of problems. I like the Chargers because they have better weapons, even without Melvin Gordon.
- 50% on the Chargers & 63% on the Over.
Los Angeles Rams (-2) @ New Orleans Saints (+2) — O/U 57.5
- Rams are 4-3-1 ATS while the Saints are 5-2.
- Rams games have scored 58 or more twice this year while Saints game have done it three times.
- These are right now the two best teams in the NFC, and barring some kind or crazy happenings in the second half of the season, will the top two seeds in the NFC (Carolina in this mix also). The Saints need this one more for home field advantage because they play in the NFC South which is obviously harder than the NFC West. Saints could drop this game and be tied with Carolina.
- Saints have come off two impressive wins on the road against the Ravens and Vikings with the help of their defense playing at the level they were last year.
- We’ll see how the Saints DB’s handle the Rams WRs and Todd Gurley out of the backfield, especially if Cooper Kupp is back for the Rams.
- The Rams also now have four former 1st round picks on the defensive line. These guys are going to have to stop the running of Ingram and Kamara to help make them one dimensional. That way they can really tee off on Brees. If Fowler Jr. can get pressure on the QB to help the rush along with Aaron Donald, watch the fuck out. Brees is not the most mobile guy
- Even though the Rams are undefeated, kinda surprised they are favored over the Saints at home. It’s not like the Saints haven’t been impressive in their wins.
- I’ll take the Saints at home and the under. Much like the Packer/Rams game last week, I think there is just little less offense then people are expecting. Barring a few defensive or special team TD’s from either team, I don’t see both of these offenses – as good as they are – getting to 58 points. Both defenses have almost as much talent as the opposing offenses.
- 52% on the Saints and 59% on the OVER.
Green Bay Packers (+5.5) @ New England Patriots (-5.5) — O/U 57
- Packers are 3-4 ATS while the Pats are 5-3.
- Packers games have scored 58 or more points twice this year, while the Pats games have done it three times.
- COOL FACT OF THE WEEK: The last two times these teams have met, the loser of this game has gone on to win the Super Bowl. So, is this a MUST LOSE for both teams? I think so.
- Having said that, the Packers desperately need a win here. At 3-3-1 they are falling behind in their division and the wild card race. I don’t think a 9-5-1 record gets you in the playoffs, they will need to hit 10 wins.
- Both defenses come in giving up a ton of points to good offenses. I say that because the Buffalo Bills aren’t a real time and the Patriots defensive performance against them doesn’t count.
- The Packers defense is finally healthy however. They have all their secondary back and Jaire Alexander is a fucking stud.
- The play of Alexander and Kevin King, along with the depth at CB of having Tramon Williams, Josh Jackson, and Bashaud Breeland, made the decision to trade Ha Ha Clinton-Dix a little bit easier for the Packers. We’ll see how moving Williams to safety effect this Packers defense, Williams did play safety for Mike Pettine while he was in Cleveland.
- Both teams are juggernauts offensively led by the two best QBs in the game. Both are having their troubles on offense however: the Packers running game can be inconsistent partly because Mike McCarthy won’t give Aaron Jones the ball more, and for the Pats, Rob Gronkowski has been very quiet this year. I actually think this will be a big game for both.
- Regardless of where you stand on this GOAT debate, and how annoying every sports site/channel/radio show has been with Rodgers v. Brady. We only get it so often, enjoy the shit out of it.
- I’ll take the Packers to cover in another close one, Rodgers keeps getting healthier and I think their defense at this point is a little better than the Pats. I will also very reluctantly take the under.
- 61% on the Pats and 70% on the Over.
MOXIE LOCK OF THE WEEK: Houston Texas (-1) @ Denver Broncos