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NCAAF

CFB Week 10 Sportsbook

#6 Georgia (-10) @ #11 Kentucky (+10) — O/U 44.5

  • Georgia 4-3-1 ATS while Kentucky is 4-4 ATS.
  • Georgia games have gone over 45 or more points every single game this season. Kentucky has only done it twice all year.
  • Most points Kentucky has scored in the month of October? 15.  And they needed an untimed down against Mizzou to get there.
  • Georgia came off that great beat down of Florida last week and proved they are still the best in the SEC East.
  • Kentucky does have a great defense that can cause some problems, but they have not played a team the caliber of Georgia yet.  The Florida team they played in September, wasn’t nearly as good as the Florida team Georgia just beat.
  • I like Georgia in this game, BIG. I feel like this game will be similar to the FL/GA game last week. Low scoring, kinda close in the 1st half.  But Georgia pulls away in the second half and wins by at least two TD’s.  Also, I like the over. 35-10 Georgia. Book it.
    • 75% on Georgia & 59% on the Under.

#12 West Virginia (+2) @ #16 Texas (-2) — O/U 58

  • WVU is 5-2 ATS while Texas is 3-5.
  • West Virginia’s game have gone over 59 points or more in four games this year while Texas’ games have gone over 59 three times this year.
  • Texas is coming off the Barry Sanders loss to Oklahoma St. on the road while WVU screwed me over last week and absolutely shit-pumped Baylor into next year.
  • WVU defense is a lot better than it has been in previous year, which is why I think they have been discussed just a bit more in the College Football Tournament discussion then they may have in previous years.
  • Contrary to popular belief, Texas is not back. They will not be back until they win the Big 12.  I think they are a just a step below WVU this year.
  • I hope Tom Herman and Dana Holgorson fight at mid field after a targeting penalty in the third quarter.
  • I like WVU in this game and I like the under.  I think WVU defense keeps this game lower scoring. Don’t fail me again, for two weeks in a row please.
    • 51% WVU & 87% on the Over.

#14 Penn State (+10.5) @ #5 Michigan (-10.5) — O/U 53

  • Michigan and Penn State are both 5-3 ATS.
  • Michigan games have gone over 54 or more points 3 times this year, while Penn State games have done this 6 times.
  • Penn State is coming off a close loss to Michigan State at home, then a close win at Indiana, and another close win against Iowa last week. This is not the same team of the past two years that was an offensive juggernaut.
  • Trace McSorley seems to be a bit banged up also which doesn’t bode well for Penn State as we saw in the game last week against Iowa.  Their offense sucked with the backup in and came back to life in the second half.
  • Michigan is on a “revenge tour” this year and is dominating opponents the past few weeks.  The killed Wisconsin at home, and although they only won 21-7 at Michigan State two weeks ago, they were jamming the ball down their god damn throats the whole 4th quarter.
  • Harbaugh is 2-1 against Penn State. The first game Michigan won 28-16 on the road.  Next year in Ann Arbor? A blowout, 49-10.  Penn State remembered that, and blew Michigan out last year at home, 42-13.  Michigan, now remembers that blowout.
  • Shea Patterson playing like the best QB in the Big Ten recently, I see that continuing.
  • I like Michigan to cover in this game, win by multiple TD’s. I also like the over.  I would check the weather if your’e throwing down some bets on Saturday morning/afternoon.  Midwest weather this time of year could be 60 and sunny are 37, 30 MPH winds, and sleet.
    • 55% on PSU & 73% on the Under.

#3 Notre Dame (9.5) @ Northwestern (+9.5)O/U 53.5

  • ND is 4-4 ATS and Northwestern is 4-3-1 ATS
  • ND games have gone over 54 or more points four times, while Northwestern games have done this three times.
  • ND has been on a roll since starting Ian Book at QB over Brandon Wimbush, besides a close call against Pitt.
  • Northwestern had a rough start to the year but recently played great at home against Michigan, came back against Nebraska, and just beat Wisconsin pretty well.
  • As I’ve said before, Evanston is hard place to play and Northwestern gets ND at night.
  • I would not be surprised to see 3/4 of this stadium as ND fans, those fuckers are everywhere.
  • I think this will be ND biggest test for the remainder of the season.
  • I like Northwestern to cover in this game, I would not even be surprised if they win outright. I am very hesitant but I am going to take the over on this one.  I don’t think Northwestern will keep Notre Dame under 20 points, therefore I think they’re gonna have to score 20+.  So, even though 20 + 20 = 40, it at least means over 53.5 for me.
    • 53% on ND & 73% on the OVER.

#1 Alabama (-14) @ #4 LSU (+14) — O/U 54

  • Both teams are 5-3 ATS.
  • Alabama games have gone over 55 or more points 7 times this year while LSU games have done it twice.
  • This game is going to show us how good Alabama really is. We all know they are good, but they haven’t played anybody at all this year (besides A&M if you think they’re good).
  • That is why this game is so hard to predict, we know who LSU is and what to expect, but how does Alabama play in a tight game. Is there a prop bet for Tua Tagovailoa throwing a pass in the 4th quarter?  Take it.
  • I think LSU has the defense to slow down Alabamas offense, they have the corners that can run with those Alabama WRs. If LSU defense is playing good, and then Devin White comes back in the 2nd half?  Watch out, big boost for that home crown at night.
  • Speaking of that home crowd at night, lets see if Saban has really changed his offensive philosophy.  In the past, Saban would come in and run the ball down LSU’s throat to show them who is the better team.
  • If this is a close game in the second half, will be interesting to see what kind of mistakes Tua makes. Remember, he made a few in the championship game against Georgia last year.
  • I like LSU to cover in a more defensive battle, they hold Alabama under 30 points. BOLD FUCKING TAKE.  I also take the under in this game.
    • 54% on Alabama & 61% on the OVER.

Last Weeks Record: 9-7

 

MOXIES LOCK OF THE WEEK:  Wisconsin/Rutgers OVER 50.5

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