Week 8 Games of The Week
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) (-154) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) (+144) — O/U 42.5
- Eagles are 2-5 ATS, Jaguars are 3-4 ATS.
- Game played in London. Jaguars play game in London every year.
- Both teams come in at 3-4 desperately needing a win to keep up in their respective divisions.
- The Jaguars come in struggling on offense, that might be putting it lightly. QB Blake Bortles are SUCKED the past few games and that has put the Jaguars great defense in tough spots. The defense has been on the field way too much and also in poor positions. The defense didn’t played bad last week against Houston but when you it’s hard to stop teams from scoring when they only need to go about 25 yards.
- Jaguars miss Leonard Fournette and his ability to pound the ball, the just traded for Carlos Hyde coming in from the Browns. Hyde is nowhere near the player Fournette is but the Jags are hoping he can become that battering ram and pick up some tough yards to make 2nd and 6 or 3rd and 3 instead of 2nd or 3rd and 10’s. Those kind of tough yards will make it easier on Bortles to make quicker decisions on shorter passes and not have to read the coverage down the field to try and make up yards.
- The Eagles also come in struggling to run the ball. They lost Jay Ajayi for the season and now must rely on Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood – until they trade for Jordan Howard or Lesean McCoy.
- Eagles passing game is not as strong as last year either. Ertz and Jeffery are absolute STUDS but they are not getting contribution from Agholor like they did last year. I also think this offense misses that deep threat possibility that Torrey Smith gave them last year. Smith now in Carolina was replaced by Mike Wallace who got injured.
- Both defenses are still some of the top unite in the league (yes I know the Jags gave up 40 to the Cowboys). With the travel and the field conditions we’ve seen in the past, I think both defenses really dominate this game. This becomes a high scoring game if the Eagles defense can force a few Bortles turnovers – which is probably pretty likely.
- Eagles have scored 43 or more points 4 times this year while the Jags have done it 3 times.
- I like the Eagles to win, I think they are just the better the team at this point in the season and I do not trust the Jags offense at all. I don’t see Hyde creating the type of running game that Fournette can for the Jags. I also like the under in this game, even with a few Jags turnovers
- 66% on Eagles & 65% on OVER.
Baltimore Ravens (-2) (-125) @ Carolina Panthers (+2) (+105) — O/U 43.5
- Ravens are 4-3 ATS while the Panthers are 3-3 ATS.
- What would be a huge surprise at the start of the year to almost everyone, the Ravens are averaging more PPG than the Panthers. 25.1 to 23.7.
- Ravens are coming off a disappointing loss to the Saints while the Panthers had a great comeback on the road against the Eagles.
- The Ravens could possibly be the most well rounded team in the NFL but I am surprised to see they are favored on the road against a good Panthers teams. I don’t see the Panthers throwing out a dud at home against a big opponent.
- Ravens haven’t faced a mobile QB like Cam at all this season. So how much does playing against scout team QB like Robert Griffin help them in tracking Cam and brining him down to the ground.
- I will gladly take the Panthers in this game, I like them at home and I like the way they came back against the Philadelphia Eagles last week. I also have no fucking clue why, but I am taking the over. I just feel like this is going to be a 28-24 type of game. I feel uneasy about it, but fuck it.
- 56% on the Panthers & 52% on UNDER
Green Bay Packers (+9) (+351) @ L.A. Rams (-9) (-450) — O/U 57
- Packers are 2-4 ATS and Rams are 4-2-1 ATS.
- Rams offense is a god damn juggernaut and the Packers defense is a sieve. This bodes well for the over.
- Somehow Aaron Rodgers is a 9 point underdog against a defense that has shown it can be scored on, pretty easily.
- The Packers are close to being back to being healthy, Rodgers will reportedly have his knee brace off, Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb are back practicing and should also play on Sunday. Combine that along with McCarthy’s apparent focus to run the ball more, specifically with Aaron Jones and that bodes well for the Packers.
- The Rams offense could be without Cooper Kupp but Shawn McVay has shown he can plug guys in and get great production from them. Oh yeah, he still has Todd Gurley.
- Defensively the Packers are also getting their 1st round pick Jaire Alexander back. This will only be the second game where all defensive back for the Packers are playing together. Their defense has given up a fuck ton of points in the 1st half of games this year but adjusted well in the second half.
- I see this game playing out much like the Vikings/Rams game earlier in the year. High scoring, back and forth and game.
- Packers have scored over 57 points only twice while the rams have done it 3 times.
- Giving Aaron Rodgers 9 points is ridiculous. Take it, hammer it, and take that over as well.
- 68% of Packers & 72% on the OVER
New Orleans Saints (PK) (-105) @ Minnesota Vikings (PK) (-115) — O/U 53
- Saints are 4-2 ATS while the Vikings are 4-2-1 ATS
- Both offenses here have the ability to go off and both teams have good defenses.
- The Vikings are missing Dalvin Cook in backfield but Latavious Murray has come to life the past few weeks, as has the Vikings defense, but it has come against the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets.
- The Saints are more balanced now with Mark Ingram back, Alvin Kamara has cooled off a bit but I expect his usage to increase in this game. Minnesota had trouble covering Todd Gurley out of the backfield and Sean Peyton will look at that Rams film and try to use Kamara in a similar way.
- The Saints defense has come back to earth and played like the defense we saw last year that really surprised everybody. They held the Giants and Redskins to less than 20 points and held a Baltimore offense to 23 points, with a little help from Justin Tucker. However the Vikings offense is a league above all those previous teams.
- This O/U at 53 is low to me. I think both of these teams will score against opposing defenses and this will be an up and down game.
- Saints and Vikings have both gone over 53 points 3 times year.
- I like the Saints in this game, I think they expose the struggling Vikings defense that got back on track against two poor offenses. I think the Saints are straight up the better team in this matchup and win this game in a high scoring affair. Take the over.
- 63% on the Saints and 74% on the OVER
- Also, Thielen gets another 100 yard game. Take that prop bet if its available.
The Moxie Lock of the Week: Colts @ Raiders OVER @ 50