I am going to pick a game from each conference each week to preview for betting, give my picks and what I would be betting. Starting now I will be keeping my score for each pick I make in these blogs, not necessarily each pick I actually bet on.
At the bottom I will give The Moxie’s Lock of the Week. The lock can be one of the Games of the Week or just another line I like from another game.
I get these lines from MyBookie. Stats from My Action. Any suggestions on what else you’d like to see here in the breakdowns would be greatly appreciated!
NCAA Games of The Week
Baylor (+14) (+447) @ West Virginia (-14) (-600) — O/U 67.5 (Big 12)
- Baylor is 3-4 ATS while West Virginia is 4-2 ATS.
- The Big 12 plays no defense and this O/U at 67.5 is saying just that, however West Virginia’s defense is playing much better than expected while only giving up 20.5 points per game. Baylor’s defense on the other hand is giving up 31.0 points per game
- Both offenses are averaging over 33 points per game.
- If were looking at the over under, Baylor has gone over 67.5 only three times this year (their loss against Duke was at exactly 67 points
- West Virginia has gone over 67.5 twice all year.
- Besides the Oklahoma game this year, Baylor has been competitive in their losses. (oh and losing to Duke at home, what the fuck?)
- I like West Virginia in this game, in a 10-13 point game. I don’t see Baylor scoring enough points to get this game over 67.5. If that happens, West Virginia will put up 40+
- 62% on WVU & 75% on OVER
Wisconsin (-7) (-260) @ Northwestern (+7) (+215) — O/U 51 (Big Ten)
- Wisconsin is 2-5 ATS while Northwestern in 3-3-1 ATS
- BIG game in the Big 10 West. Loser of this game can count themselves out of the Big 10 West race. Both teams have one Big Ten loss to Michigan. Northwestern has already beaten their second Big Ten East foe in Michigan State and beat Purdue in week 1 but needs to go to Iowa in November while Wisconsin still needs to go to Penn Sate in November. Whoever wins this game is in the drivers seat for the Big Ten West.
- Evanston, IL in late fall is a huge home field advantage. Grass field, small stadium, little school full of nerds, and Northwestern always plays good at home. Most recently they blew a 17 point lead to Michigan to lose by 3 and came back down from 10 to beat Nebraska at home. Evanston is a tough place to play.
- Northwestern has played close games all year, 3 point wins over Nebraska and @ Rutgers, , 3 point loss to Michigan, 4 point win over Purdue, 5 point loss to Akron. Only two big point differences are a 10 point win @ Michigan State and a 14 point loss vs Duke.
- 51 point O/U? Northwestern and Wisconsin have only eclipsed that mark 3 times all year. (WI/MI game hit exactly 51 points)
- Wisconsin averages 33.0 PPG and gives up 20.0, while Northwestern averages 24.3 PPG and gives up 24.6
- I cannot believe this game is a 7 point spread. Love Northwestern and taking the points. This game screams a slow, dragged out, low scoring affair. Take the points with Northwestern and the under.
- 59% on WI & 60% on UNDER
Iowa (+6.5) (+211) @ Penn State (-6.5) (-255) — O/U 51.5 (Big Ten)
- Iowa is 6-1 ATS while Penn State is 4-3 ATS.
- Who the FUCK is Iowa? They have played one “real” team all year in Wisconsin and lost at home 28-17. They also beat Iowa State at home 13-3 but other than that, they have not been tested all year and have almost every bad Big Ten team on their schedule besides Rutgers.
- Iowa needs to win this game to stay in the Big Ten West race especially if Wisconsin wins at Northwestern. If Northwestern wins, Iowa gets them at home in November. (Don’t forget about Purdue either)
- Penn State needs to win this game to show they are still a force in the Big Ten. With two losses and still having to play at Michigan, they need to win this game so they don’t have a 4 or 5 loss season. If they can beat Iowa and Michigan, a two loss Penn State team could still a NY6 Bowl game.
- This game being 51.5 and WI/Northwestern at 51 is preposterous. Penn States offense has shown they can score 51 points on their own, three times this year actually and they put up 45 on Appalachian St. in the opener.
- Iowa has played two road games all year where they gave up 31 to Minnesota and 16 to Indiana.
- Penn State averages 42.6 PPG and gives up 22.0, while Iowa averages 30.6 PPG and gives up 14.1
- HUGE IMPACT on game: Weather. Saturday is looking like mid 40’s and almost a 100% chance of precipitation. This looks like an ugly game in the making.
- I thinks this spread is wonderful for hammering Penn State. Penn State losing at home to Michigan State and playing a close game on the road against Indiana is making this spread so small. Also the perception that Iowa is a legitimate Big Ten contender is making this line at 6.5. However, until Iowa proves they can play with the big boys, I am not betting on them. I like Penn State to win by at least 7 points, and because of that weather, I like the under.
- 68% on Iowa & 62% on the UNDER
Purdue (+1.5) (+100) @ Michigan St. (-1.5) (-120) — O/U 51 (Big Ten)
- Purdue is 5-2 ATS while Michigan St. is 2-5 ATS
- Purdue is also in this Big Ten West race with only one loss to Northwestern in the first game of the season. Michigan St. is playing to be the highly ranked Big Ten East team that ends up having 4 or 5 losses at the end of year. It does not help that Michigan St. also has a ridiculous amount of injuries and Lewerke, well, he has fucking sucked.
- Purdue has not won a game in this series since 2006. The last three games in East Lansing have all been close though, 3 point win in ’15, 14-0 win in ’13 and a 4 point win in ’10.
- Purdue have been shitpumping points lately, since their loss against Missouri (40-37), they have put up 30, 42, 46, and 49 on their way to averaging 35.7 points per game. Michigan State on the other hand is only averaging 23.4 points.
- Both teams give up on average about 22 points per game.
- Purdue has hit over 51 points in 5 of 7 games this year while Michigan State has only done that twice. They did hit exactly 51 points in a 31-20 win over Central Michigan.
- Purdue is coming in HOT after their dominate win over Ohio State while Michigan State is reeling after a tough loss to their riv– sorry I mean Big Brother in Michigan.
- This game is real hard to pick and honestly I would stay away from it, however I do like Michigan State here and the under. Michigan States defense is real and this not a primetime game at home for Purdue. They have only played two true away games all year, against Nebraska and Illinois. Take Michigan State and the under if you feel confident.
- 59% on Purdue & 63% on the Under
Washington St. (+2.5) (+135) @ Stanford (-2.5) (-155) — O/U 53 (Pac 12)
- Washing St. is 7-0 ATS while Stanford is 4-3 ATS.
- Does anybody care about the Pac-12?
- If Washington St. wins out, are they even considered for the College Football Tournament or does a 1 or 2 loss team from the SEC or Big Ten like Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, George, Alabama still get in over them? I’ll take the SEC or Big Ten team.
- Washington St. can fucking score and they have hit over 53 in 5 of their 7 games. The other two? 31-0 win over San Jose State and a 28-24 win over Utah.
- Stanford has shown they can score but then they’ve shown their offense can completely stall. Their two losses this year have been blowouts @ Notre Dame and at home against Utah.
- Washington St. has won the bas two including a 42-16 win @ Stanford in 2016.
- I like Washington St. outright in this game and for the over to hit.
- I’ll be honest, I barely watch Pac 12 football (yawn) besides those Stanford/Oregon and Washington/Oregon games.
- 53% on WSU & 51% on the UNDER
Georgia (-6.5) (-255) vs. Florida (+6.5) (+211) — O/U 52 (SEC)
- Georgia is 3-3-1 ATS. Florida is 6-1 ATS
- Kentucky is still in the race for the SEC East but the winner of this game has to feel pretty good about their chances of making it to Atlanta. Georgia still needs to play at Kentucky, but this game has both teams coming in with legit SEC Title hopes.
- Since 2010 this game has gone above 52 only twice, in 2010 and 2014.
- Both Florida and Georgia has hit over 52 points 4 times this year.
- Florida’s overs of 52 points have come against poorer competition (Vandy, TN, CSU, Charleston So) while the lower scoring games are against more stiff competition like Georgia.
- Both of these teams rely on playing great defense and running the ball, that bodes for a low scoring affair.
- The storyline of this game is which team is for real? Is Florida really a good enough team to take on Alabama, was that loss to Kentucky at home a fluke, did they just need some time to gel under Dan Mullen? On the other side, did everybody jump too far ahead with Georgia (yes they did). After last years championship game most people though Georgia was at Alabamas level, just reload after each season. I think it is clear this team is not as good as last years right now. It could be that both these teams are for real. We don’t know much about these SEC teams because Alabama hasn’t played anybody so we can’t compare. Once they play LSU next week, we will get a better understanding of what these teams are like.
- I like Georgia -6.5 in this. I think they have come down a bit from last year and Florida is undoubtedly a better team, however I think Georgia is still a TD better – and they get it late to open the game up. Also taking the under.
- Game is a coin flip basically, 51% on UGA & 50/50 on the O/U
Clemson (-17) (-800) @ Florida State (+17) (+562) — O/U 51 (ACC)
- Clemson and FSU are both 3-4 ATS
- In past years this game is played in primetime, but the game being played at 12 EST hurts FSU and their home field advantage
- 17 is a ton points but the past two weeks Clemson has hit their stride after finally starting freshman QB Trevor Lawerence. FSU has also played better in the past weeks but still struggles a ton on offense.
- FSU could be in trouble of making a blow game this year. After Clemson they go @ NC State, @ Notre Dame, host Boston College, and host Florida. I am not sure I see two wins there.
- Clemson is scoring 42 PPG and giving up 13.4, while FSU is putting up 25.1 PPG and giving up 24.
- Biggest question here, who has the better looking cheerleaders?
- I like Clemson in this game big, I just don’t know about 17 points big. I do like the over in this game, I do not see FSU stopping Clemson but I think FSU gets a some garbage time points and gets this game over 51.
- 62% on Clemson and 54% on the OVER.
Navy (+23.5) vs. Notre Dame (-23.5) — O/U 54.5 (Independent)
- Notre Dame is 4-3 ATS and Navy is 1-6 ATS
- Notre Dame is in control to go undefeated and make the college football tournament this year. Notre Dame has played well in their bigger games this year (v. Michigan, v. Stanford, @ VT) but has also played down to their competition against teams like Ball State, Vandy, and PITT (all games at home BTW).
- Navy is well, Navy. They have little to no passing game but the have the 3rd ranked rushing game in the country. Navy will try to slow this game down and tire out that ND front seven.
- ND is also MUCH better than Navy defensively. ND sits at 29th in total defense while Navy ranked 97th.
- We saw that teams who run the triple option can cause trouble for teams. Look at the Oklahoma/Army game earlier in the year.
- I think this is a high scoring affair but Navy can keep it within 23.5 points.
- 59% are on Navy and 80% on the UNDER.
The Moxie’s Lock of the Week: Wisconsin/Northwestern Under @ 51.
- Bring your bag of money, put in the locker, and use your padlock to lock that shit up.